1)     TYPE:

The CFB October system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1.00 units on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units based on the historical data of the group (by Money Line Range, Home/Away/Neutral, etc.). We also have PROGRESSIVE systems that vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units as well. However the difference between Weighted Flat and PROGRESSIVE systems is that PRECEDING results (prior week, prior day, etc) have no impact on the upcoming plays. So there is no build factor or due factor, as there is with Progressive systems. That is why it is still a flat. The advantage of the Weighted Flat system is that we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. This disadvantage of weighted flat systems is since the higher unit plays are based on (in this case) 6-year historical data - if there is an off year or bad luck year - there can be more downside risk if the high unit groups don't perform well. More info on the different types of systems can be found in our FAQ's section.

2)     UNITS:  

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above the CFB October system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. We will be using the entire unit range of 0.20 to 5.00 for this system:

Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

0.20     $20       $100     $200   (1/5 your standard wager) 

0.50     $50       $250     $500   (1/2 standard)

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard 

3)     UPDATE TIMES:

CFB updates will be sent Tuesday through Friday, at approximately 6 PM Eastern.
* The Friday update will contain the plays for the ENTIRE weekend (Friday through Sunday night).
* NOTE: There will be Tuesday updates on the following days: 10/6, 10/13, and 10/27.
* NOTE: There will be Wednesday updates on the following days: 10/7, 10/14, and 10/21.

* All updates will be sent via EMAIL.

4)     PROFIT NUMBERS/ UNIT BREAKDOWN:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past six seasons:

This system is nearly identical to the September system as far as units, number of plays, total profits and average profits. However the September system was coming off the best year out of the six, this system is coming off the WORST year. So hopefully there will be some major corrections this season in the key ranges.

The average profit across all six seasons was +38.10 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline (1.00 unit) play that would be an average profit of $3,810, and a total profit of $22,858 over the past six seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $19,048 and a total profit of $114,290.

As you can see each season finished with a profit, and only one season was in single digits. We feel this system has tremendous upside potential and low downside risk. You'll also notice that in 2003 there were considerably less plays. This is due to the fact that there were less money-lined games in 2003. The books we were using at the time (BOS & Olympic) did not release many of the higher money lines (+800 and up) and they did not release money lines for Sun Belt games. In 2004 we started using CRIS/BookMaker. Also, there were only 4 October Saturdays in 2003. There were 5 Saturdays in 2004 & 2005. The last three seasons (2006-08) there have been four Saturdays. 

This season there will be five Saturdays. So we anticipate 140 - 160 plays this season, or approximately 30 plays per week. Most of those (25-28) will be on Saturday. However keep in mind many of those plays are 0.5 or 0.2 units. The average Saturday was 17 units. The highest unit total on a Saturday was 27.6 units. Only 4 out of 26 Saturdays went over 22 units. Most Saturdays were 13-21 units. Here is the unit breakdown by year for Saturdays:

As far as the specific unit levels, Here is the breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year for this system:

5)     BANKROLL:

For this particular system, a bankroll of 20.0 units should be sufficient. With all of the seasons (even last season) this would have been enough to support all of the wagers. However with many of the seasons 10 units would have been sufficient. So although you should allocate 20 units to be on the safe side, we would suggest starting with 10 and seeing how it goes.

6)     MORE NOTES:

• The system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, however we will NOT BE ON EVERY DOG. Some of the ranges did not perform well enough to justify a play at any unit level.

• This system should NOT be played as a pure flat, because of the lower performance of the 0.50 and 0.20 unit plays. In fact the 0.20's as a group are NOT profitable. We are on them for primarily psychological reasons (so we don't MISS OUT on big dogs that hit) as well as JUST IN CASE there's an abnormal season and dogs in those ranges do better than usual for some reason. You should know that the 0.50's - 5.00's comprise 108% percent of the profits. So if you don't mind missing out on some big dogs that hit, you should avoid playing the 0.20's completely and you MIGHT achieve better profits than if you do play them.

• We WILL be on all Non-Saturday dogs. This includes any dogs BM puts a money line out for.

• We will be using the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that fall into the system.

• We will pull the lines at approximately 5:35 PM Eastern Tuesdays-Thursdays; slightly earlier on Fridays.

• A quick note about 'BIG DOGS'. It is frustrating when we're not on a big dog that hits. However you should know that there's a statistical reason for this. We started tracking October big dogs in 2004, and over the past five seasons, here's the performance:
  
                                           October road dogs +1000 and higher: 7-115; *+49.00 units
  
  *The ONLY reason this group is profitable is due to Stanford's win at USC in 2007 (+7500, +75.00 units). If not for that game, playing all of these dogs would have resulted in -26.00 units. Of the 7 that did hit, four of them were +1300 or less.
  
  *HOME dogs of +1000 or higher in October are a completely different story. They are extremely profitable (+59.50) and it is NOT the result of just one game. Let's just say we will be on every home dog BM puts a line out for, it's just a matter of to what extent. 
   

• For this system, over 83% of the lines in our database are from CRIS/BM. Over 12% are from BOS, Olympic, or The Greek (very similar to CRIS/BM). Less than 4% are from Pinnacle (money lines occasionally higher). So for the most part, this system is 'apples-to-apples'. 

• Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us. 

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