1)     TYPE:

The CFB September system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1.00 units on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units based on the historical data of the group (by Money Line Range, Home/Away/Neutral, etc.). We also have PROGRESSIVE systems that vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units as well. However the difference between Weighted Flat and PROGRESSIVE systems is that PRECEDING results (prior week, prior day, etc) have no impact on the upcoming plays. So there is no build factor or due factor, as there is with Progressive systems. That is why it is still a flat. The advantage of the Weighted Flat system is that we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. This disadvantage of weighted flat systems is since the higher unit plays are based on (in this case) 6-year historical data - if there is an off year or bad luck year - there can be more downside risk if the high unit groups don't perform well. More info on the different types of systems can be found in our FAQ's section.

2)     UNITS:  

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above the CFB September system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. We will be using the entire unit range of 0.20 to 5.00 for this system:

Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

0.20     $20       $100     $200   (1/5 your standard wager) 

0.50     $50       $250     $500   (1/2 standard)

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard 

3)     UPDATE TIMES:

Updates will be sent Mondays, Thursdays & Fridays, at approximately 6 PM Eastern (see NOTES below for exceptions). 
The Friday update will contain the plays for the ENTIRE weekend (Friday through Sunday night).
* NOTE: On Monday, September 7th, there will be an update at 12 PM ET (there is a day game at 4 PM ET).
* NOTE: On Wednesday, September 30th, there will be an update at 6 PM ET.

* All updates will be sent via EMAIL.

4)     PROFIT NUMBERS/ UNIT BREAKDOWN:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past six seasons:

As you can see each season finished with a profit, and only one season was in single digits. We feel this system has tremendous upside potential and low downside risk. You'll also notice that beginning in 2006 there were considerably more plays. This is due to the fact that there were only 4 Saturdays by September 30th in 2004 and 2005. The last three seasons (2006-08) there have been five Saturdays. In 2003 there were five Saturdays, however for that season we have slightly less lines in our database, because we used BOS & Olympic. In 2004 we started using CRIS/BookMaker. Although their money lines are extremely similar, BOS and Olympic did not release many of the higher money lines (+800 and up). Additionally, they did not release money lines for Sun Belt games. 

This season there will only be four Saturdays. Considering that the average final Saturday in '06-'08 was about 33 plays, we anticipate 125 - 130 plays this season. 

We consider the percentage for 2006 to be abnormally low, and the percentages for 2007 & 2008 to be abnormally high. The percentages the first three seasons seem to be more in line with the overall average, so as long as it's a NORMAL month for the underdogs, profits should be in the range of 20-30 units.

The average profit across all six seasons was +34.27 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline (1.00 unit) play that would be an average profit of $3,427, and a total profit of $20,564 over the past six seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $17,137 and a total profit of $102,820.

As far as daily volume, as you can see it averaged 4.6 plays per day and 3.0 units per day. Keep in mind that is across 30 days of September (and in some cases there were August games). That is not the average on GAME days (some days there are no games). Obviously, the largest day is Saturday. The average Saturday was 15.47 units. The highest unit total on a Saturday was 21.9 units. Only 3 out of 28 Saturdays went over 20 units. Here are the average units for Saturdays:

As you can see, the unit levels increase the later it gets in the month (more games each Saturday). 

As far as overall unit levels, Here is the breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year for this system:

5)     BANKROLL:

For this particular system, a bankroll of 20.0 units should be sufficient. With all of the seasons (even 2006) this would have been enough to support all of the wagers. However with 2004, 2005, & 2008, 10 units would have been sufficient. So although you should allocate 20 units to be on the safe side, we would suggested starting with 10 and seeing how it goes.

6)     MORE NOTES:

• The system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, however we will NOT BE ON EVERY DOG. We will not be on SATURDAY home 120-124, or 2001+. We will also not be on SATURDAY road 181-219, or 1000+. These groups did not perform well enough to justify a play at any unit level.

• This system should NOT be played as a pure flat, because of the lower performance of the 0.50 and 0.20 unit plays. In fact the 0.20's as a group are NOT profitable. We are on them for primarily psychological reasons (so we don't MISS OUT on big dogs that hit) as well as JUST IN CASE there's an abnormal season and dogs in those ranges do better than usual for some reason. You should know that the 0.50's - 5.00's comprise 113% percent of the profits. So if you don't mind missing out on some big dogs that hit, you should avoid playing the 0.20's completely and you MIGHT achieve better profits than if you do play them.

• We WILL be on all Non-Saturday dogs. This includes any dogs BM puts a money line out for.

• We WILL be on all Saturday HOME dogs from +124 to +2000. 

• We will be using the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that fall into the system.

• We will pull the lines at approximately 5:35 PM Eastern on Mondays & Thursdays; slightly earlier on Fridays.

• A quick note about 'BIG DOGS'. It is frustrating when we're not on a big dog that hits. However you should know that there's a statistical reason for this. We started tracking big dogs in 2005, and over the past four seasons, here's the performance:
  
                                           August/September road dogs +1000 and higher: 6-179; -26.45 units
                                           August/September HOME dogs +1000 and higher: 3-36; +11.00 units
  
  For the road dogs, five out of the six wins were below +2150. If not for Syracuse beating Louisville at +7500 in 2007, the performance would have been disastrous (-102.45 units). For the HOME dogs, all three wins were below +2000. The dogs higher than +2000 were 0-12 (-12.00 units). A handful of big dogs hit obviously, and there are more 'big upsets' each year as parity increases. We are working on a big dog progressive system for 2010 (when we will have 5 years of data). If any of you want to do your own big dog system THIS SEASON, by all means send us an email should you want our help with it.
  

• For this system, over 78% of the lines in our database are from CRIS/BM. Over 15% are from BOS, Olympic, or The Greek (very similar to CRIS/BM). Less than 7% are from Pinnacle (slightly higher). So for the most part, this system is 'apples-to-apples'. 

• Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us. 

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