1)     TYPE:

The MLB May system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1.00 units on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units based on the historical data of the group (by Money Line Range, Home/Away, in this case also by AL/NL/Interleague). We also have PROGRESSIVE systems that vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units as well. However the difference between Weighted Flat and PROGRESSIVE systems is that PRECEDING results (prior week, prior day, etc) have no impact on the upcoming plays. So there is no build factor or due factor, as there is with Progressive systems. That is why it is still a flat. The advantage of the Weighted Flat system is that we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. This disadvantage of weighted flat systems is since the higher unit plays are based on (in this case) 4-year historical data - if there is an off year or bad luck year - there can be more downside risk if the high unit groups don't perform well. More info on the different types of systems can be found in our FAQ's section.

2)     UNITS:  

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above the MLB May system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. However we will not be using all of the unit levels for this particular system. For this system, we will only be utilizing 1.00, 2.00 or 3.00 units.

Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

*0.20     $20       $100     $200     (1/5 your standard wager)    *WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS SYSTEM

*0.50     $50       $250     $500     (1/2 standard)     *WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS SYSTEM

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

*5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard     *WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS SYSTEM

3)     UPDATE TIMES:

There will be ONE or TWO updates per day for the MLB systems (except Sunday) depending on whether or not there are day games:

• Monday - Saturday: 1st update (if day games): Approximately *12 PM ET (includes games that start prior to 7 PM ET)

• Monday - Saturday: 2nd update (for night games): Approximately 6 PM ET (includes games that start at 7 PM ET or later)

• Sunday: ONE update at approximately 12 PM ET* (includes all games)

• *NOTE: In the rare instance in which there is a game that starts prior to 12:35 PM ET the update will be sent earlier, at least 30 minutes prior to the start of the 1st game.

• All updates will be sent via EMAIL.

4)     PROFIT NUMBERS/ UNIT BREAKDOWN:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past four seasons:

NOTE: You may be wondering why the April system has an 8-YEAR track record and the May system only 4 years. This is due to the fact that in 2005 they started playing Interleague games in May. So although we have data going back to 2001, it is our goal to develop systems that are as much 'apples-to-apples' as possible. We also feel that Interleague games are a seperate animal. So this is the first season we've had enough of a data sample to isolate the Interleague games as their own group. So those are the reasons we are only using the data from 2005 on for this system.

As you can see each season finished with a profit, and due to the CYCLICAL nature of scheduling and Interleague match-ups, there seems to be a pattern of more plays/ less profits in the odd years. We're certainly hoping the 'less profits' part doesn't continue in 2009 - although we'd certainly be thrilled with 27-28 units of profit!

The average profit across all four seasons was +33.50 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline (1.00 unit) play that would be an average profit of $3,350, and a total profit of $13,401 over the past four seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $16,751 and a total profit of $67,005.

As far as daily volume, this system is a little more on the aggressive side. As you can see it averaged 3-4 plays per day and 4-5 units per day. However given the CONSISTENCY of the ranges over the past four seasons we feel the downside risk is minimal. When it comes to underdog money lines in high performing ranges, having MORE plays actually reduces downside risk (less impact of an abnormal or fluky year for any one particular range). And although the April MLB weighted flat didn't exactly set the world on fire (+2.91 units), we analyzed the data and basically it came down to bad luck in the 3.00 unit plays. Overall the system hit at a solid 43%. But the 3.00 unit plays went 2-6. Three of those were 1-run losses and two were on the same day (April 26th). Actually heading into April 24th we were at +10.42 units. A 4-4 distribution in the 3.00's and some better luck the final week and the April system would've performed very well. Still, to minimize the downside risk for the May system we have reduced the number of 3.00 unit plays from 18% to 4%. We also reduced the number of 2.00 unit plays from 31% to 19% for this system.

Here is the breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year for this system:

5)     BANKROLL:

For this particular system, a bankroll of 20.0 units should be sufficient. That would've been sufficient for 3 of the 4 seasons. 2007 was the only season that got off to an EXTREMELY fluky start (4-10 the first 3 days; 6-25 the first 8 days). So for 2007, you would've needed exactly 23.0 units of bankroll. Every other season didn't even come close to 10.0 units needed. So although you should allocate 20 units to be on the safe side, we would suggested starting with 10 and seeing how it goes, because all of the seasons but 2007 started with a normal or above average distribution of wins and losses.

6)     MORE NOTES:

• The system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, however we will NOT BE ON EVERY DOG. Similar to the April system, the plays fall within specific ranges (the highest performing ranges, in this case over the past 4 seasons).

• For those of you who are seeking a little LESS RISK, we would advise you play this system as a PURE flat (1.00 unit on every play). Here are the profit numbers if you were to remove the weightings and play this as a pure flat: 2005: +25.85; 2006: +21.96; 2007: +12.42; 2008: +21.00; TOTAL: +81.23; AVG: +20.31

• We will be using the lines from BoDog (http://sports.bodoglife.com/sports-betting/mlb-baseball.jsp) to determine the games that fall into the system.

• We will pull the lines at approximately 11:35 AM Eastern for the day update and 5:35 PM Eastern for the night update.

• ALL of the MLB May money lines in our database from 2005-2008 are from BODOG. All lines were pulled at approximately the times above. This system is 100% 'apples-to-apples'. 

• Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us. 

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