1)     TYPE:

The NFL October system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1.00 units on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units based on the historical data of the group (by Money Line Range, Home/Away/Neutral, etc.). We also have PROGRESSIVE systems that vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units as well. However the difference between Weighted Flat and PROGRESSIVE systems is that PRECEDING results (prior week, prior day, etc) have no impact on the upcoming plays. So there is no build factor or due factor, as there is with Progressive systems. That is why it is still a flat. The advantage of the Weighted Flat system is that we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. This disadvantage of weighted flat systems is since the higher unit plays are based on (in this case) 6-year historical data - if there is an off year or bad luck year - there can be more downside risk if the high unit groups don't perform well. More info on the different types of systems can be found in our FAQ's section.

2)     UNITS:  

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above the NFL September system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. We will be using the entire unit range of 0.20 to 5.00 for this system:

Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

0.20     $20       $100     $200   (1/5 your standard wager) 

0.50     $50       $250     $500   (1/2 standard)

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard 

3)     UPDATE TIMES:

* NFL updates will be sent on Monday & Fridays, at approximately 6 PM Eastern. 
* The Friday update will include the Sunday plays.

* All updates will be sent via EMAIL.

4)     PROFIT NUMBERS/ UNIT BREAKDOWN:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past six seasons:

This system is nearly identical to the September system as far as units, number of plays, total profits and average profits. Although we did not achieve profits with the September system, that was due to bad-luck endings in FOUR games in which the dog melted down in the final minute (the Bears Sunday night game on 9/13, BOTH Monday night games on 9/14, and the 49ers on 9/27). A win in any ONE of those games and the system would've been profitable. Plus it was a short month (only three weeks). So we feel the system is solid for the NFL with relatively normal results and a full month of games, which is why we are going a similar system for October. 

As you can see each season finished with a profit, and only one season was in single digits (2003). We feel this system has tremendous upside potential and low downside risk. This season there will only be four Sundays, so we anticipate 32 - 48 plays this season (8-12 plays per week). 

The average profit across all six seasons was +21.59 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline (1.00 unit) play that would be an average profit of $2,159, and a total profit of $12,955 over the past six seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $10,795 and a total profit of $64,773.

As far as volume, as you can see it averaged basically 10 units per week and 10 plays per week. As far as the specific unit levels, Here is the breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year for this system:

5)     BANKROLL:

For this particular system, a bankroll of 10.0 units should be sufficient. With all of the seasons (even 2003) that would have been enough to support all of the wagers. Although you should allocate 20 units to be on the safe side, we would suggest starting with 10 and seeing how it goes.

6)     MORE NOTES:

• The system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, however we will NOT BE ON EVERY DOG. Some of the SUNDAY groups did not perform well enough to justify a play at any unit level.

• For those of you who want to go much more conservative you could play this system as a pure flat. All of the seasons would've been profitable. However if you do this, you should leave out the 0.20's and 0.50's completely. Here are the profit numbers as a pure flat, without the 0.20's and 0.50's:

          2003: +11.30
          2004: +16.00
          2005: + 9.15
          2006: +18.15
          2007: +11.85
          2008: + 9.80
          TOTAL: +76.25
          AVG: +12.71

• Again, the reason we are on the 0.20's and 0.50's is a) 'psychological' because it is too frustrating not being on a big dog that hits and b) in case it is in abnormally GOOD year in that particular range for some reason. Overall the 1.00's to 5.00's comprise 112% percent of the profits. Here is the breakdown of the percentage of PROFITS by unit level: 5's: 28%; 3's: 27%; 2's: 25%; 1's: 32%; 0.5's: -2%; 0.20's: -10%. So if you don't mind missing out on some big dogs that hit, you should avoid playing the 0.20's and 0.50's completely and you MIGHT achieve better profits.

• We will be using the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that fall into the system.

• We will pull the lines at approximately 5:35 PM Eastern on Mondays; slightly earlier on Fridays.

• For this system, over 75% of the lines in our database are from CRIS/BM. The rest are from The Greek, BOS, Olympic (very similar to CRIS/BM). So for the most part, this system is 'apples-to-apples'.

• Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us. 

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