1)     TYPE:

The NFL Pre-season system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1.00 units on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units based on the historical data of the group (by Money Line Range, Home/Away/Neutral, etc.). We also have PROGRESSIVE systems that vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units as well. However the difference between Weighted Flat and PROGRESSIVE systems is that PRECEDING results (prior week, prior day, etc) have no impact on the upcoming plays. So there is no build factor or due factor, as there is with Progressive systems. That is why it is still a flat. The advantage of the Weighted Flat system is that we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. This disadvantage of weighted flat systems is since the higher unit plays are based on (in this case) 5-year historical data - if there is an off year or bad luck year - there can be more downside risk if the high unit groups don't perform well. More info on the different types of systems can be found in our FAQ's section.

2)     UNITS:  

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above the NFL Pre-season system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. However we will not be using all of the unit levels for this particular system. For this system, we will only be utilizing 0.50, 1.00, 2.00 or 3.00 units.

Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

*0.20     $20       $100     $200     (1/5 your standard wager)    *WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS SYSTEM

0.50     $50       $250     $500   (1/2 standard)

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

*5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard     *WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS SYSTEM

3)     UPDATE TIMES:

There will be ONE or TWO updates per day for this system (except Sunday) depending on whether or not there are day games:

• Monday - Saturday: 1st update (if day games): Approximately 12 PM ET (includes games that start prior to 7 PM ET)

• Monday - Saturday: 2nd update (for night games): Approximately 6 PM ET (includes games that start at 7 PM ET or later)

• Sunday: ONE update at approximately 12 PM ET (includes all games)

• For the NFL Pre-season, most updates Monday - Saturday will be at 6 PM ET.

• All updates will be sent via EMAIL.

4)     PROFIT NUMBERS/ UNIT BREAKDOWN:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past five seasons:

As you can see four out of the five seasons finished with a profit. We feel this system has tremendous upside potential and low downside risk. We consider the percentages for 2004 & 2006 to be abnormally low, and the percentage for 2005 to be abnormally high. The percentages, # of plays and profit numbers over the last two seasons seem to be more in line with the 5-year average. 

The average profit across all five seasons was +12.87 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline (1.00 unit) play that would be an average profit of $1,287, and a total profit of $6,433 over the past five seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $6,433 and a total profit of $32,163.

As far as daily volume, as you can see it averaged 1.5 plays per day and 1.6 units per day. Keep in mind that is across the 31 days of August, not GAME days (some days there are no games).

Here is the breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year for this system:

5)     BANKROLL:

For this particular system, a bankroll of 20.0 units should be sufficient. With all of the seasons (even 2006) this would have been enough to support all of the wagers. However with 2005, 2007, & 2008, 10 units would have been sufficient. So although you should allocate 20 units to be on the safe side, we would suggested starting with 10 and seeing how it goes.

6)     MORE NOTES:

• The system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, however we will NOT BE ON EVERY DOG. We will not be on some of the lower dogs (road 120-130 and HOME 120-125), because they did not perform well enough to justify even a half unit play. Here's a note about the 0.50 unit plays - as groups over the past five years they were not profitable. However enough of them hit to be profitable SOME of the years, and we don't want to leave out the ranges entirely, in case the non-profitable years were abnormal. Because there are a relatively small number of preseason plays each year - the sample sizes are still small. Still small enough whereby we feel we should include some groups of higher dogs just in case this year is an abnormally GOOD year for that range, or the off years in the data sample were abnormally bad. In any case, we've minimized downside risk by assigning them 0.50 units. Should you have any questions about this, send us an email. 

• For those of you who are seeking a little LESS RISK, we would advise you play this system as a PURE flat (1.00 unit on every play), and leave out the 0.50 unit plays. Here are the profit numbers if you were to remove the 0.50 unit plays, and play the 2.00's and 3.00's as pure flat (1.00 each):
  2004: -   1.10
  2005: + 23.20
  2006: -   0.95
  2007: +  6.85
  2008: + 12.60
  TOTAL: + 40.60
  AVG: +8.12

• We will be using the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that fall into the system.

• We will pull the lines at approximately 11:35 AM Eastern for the day update and 5:35 PM Eastern for the night update.

• ALL of the NFL Pre-season lines in our database from 2004-2008 are from BetCRIS/BookMaker (same lines). All lines were pulled at approximately the times above. This system is 100% 'apples-to-apples'. 

• Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us. 

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