1)     TYPE:

The NFL September system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1.00 units on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units based on the historical data of the group (by Money Line Range, Home/Away/Neutral, etc.). We also have PROGRESSIVE systems that vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units as well. However the difference between Weighted Flat and PROGRESSIVE systems is that PRECEDING results (prior week, prior day, etc) have no impact on the upcoming plays. So there is no build factor or due factor, as there is with Progressive systems. That is why it is still a flat. The advantage of the Weighted Flat system is that we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. This disadvantage of weighted flat systems is since the higher unit plays are based on (in this case) 6-year historical data - if there is an off year or bad luck year - there can be more downside risk if the high unit groups don't perform well. More info on the different types of systems can be found in our FAQ's section.

2)     UNITS:  

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above the NFL September system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. We will be using the entire unit range of 0.20 to 5.00 for this system:

Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

0.20     $20       $100     $200   (1/5 your standard wager) 

0.50     $50       $250     $500   (1/2 standard)

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard 

3)     UPDATE TIMES:

* Updates will be sent Mondays, Thursdays & Fridays, at approximately 6 PM Eastern. 
* The Friday update will contain the plays for the ENTIRE weekend (including the Sunday NFL plays).

* All updates will be sent via EMAIL.

4)     PROFIT NUMBERS/ UNIT BREAKDOWN:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past six seasons:

As you can see each season finished with a profit, and only one season was in single digits. We feel this system has tremendous upside potential and low downside risk. You'll also notice that 2004-06 there were less plays. This is due to the fact that there were only 3 Sundays in September those seasons. In 2003, 2007 & 2008 there were 4 Sundays. This season there will only be three Sundays, so we anticipate 32 - 40 plays this season. 

We consider the last two seasons to be outliers, 2007 being abnormally good and 2008 being abnormally bad. The first four seasons seem to be remarkably consistent as far as both profits and record. If it's a NORMAL month for the underdogs this season, profits should be in the range of 10-15 units.

The average profit across all six seasons was +17.56 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline (1.00 unit) play that would be an average profit of $1,756, and a total profit of $10,534 over the past six seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $8,778 and a total profit of $52,670.

As far as volume, as you can see it averaged 1.3 plays per day and 1.6 units per day. Keep in mind that is across 30 days of September. Obviously, most of the plays are on Sundays. Most Sundays will be in the range of 10-15 units. Overall average units per week for the system was 13.4, ranging from 17.0 in 2005 to 11.8 in 2003. Most seasons were 12-14 units per week on average.

As far as overall unit levels, Here is the breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year for this system:

5)     BANKROLL:

For this particular system, a bankroll of 20.0 units should be sufficient. With all of the seasons (even last season) this would have been enough to support all of the wagers. However with FOUR out of the six seasons (2004-07), 10 units would have been sufficient. Only 2003 & 2008 required 20 units. So although you should allocate 20 units to be on the safe side, we would suggested starting with 10 and seeing how it goes.

6)     MORE NOTES:

• The system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, however we will NOT BE ON EVERY DOG. Some of the SUNDAY groups did not perform well enough to justify a play at any unit level.

• For those of you who want to go much more conservative you could play this system as a pure flat. All of the seasons would've been profitable. However if you do this, you should leave out the 0.20's and 0.50's completely. Here are the profit numbers as a pure flat, without the 0.20's and 0.50's:

          2003: +5.75
          2004: +9.25
          2005: +6.00
          2006: +7.35
          2007: +28.25
          2008: +9.60
          TOTAL: +66.20
          AVG: +11.03

• Again, the reason we are on the 0.20's and 0.50's is a) 'psychological' because it is too frustrating not being on a big dog that hits and b) in case it is in abnormally GOOD year in that particular range for some reason. Overall the 1.00's - 5.00's comprise 117% percent of the profits. Here is the breakdown: 5's: 19%; 3's: 34%; 2's: 31%; 1's: 32%. So if you don't mind missing out on some big dogs that hit, you should avoid playing the 0.20's and 0.50's completely and you MIGHT achieve better profits.

• We will be using the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that fall into the system.

• We will pull the lines at approximately 5:35 PM Eastern on Mondays (and the opening night Thursday); slightly earlier on Fridays.

• For this system, over 72% of the lines in our database are from CRIS/BM, including all the lines from 2005 on. The rest are from BOS or Olympic (very similar to CRIS/BM). So for the most part, this system is 'apples-to-apples'. 

• Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us. 

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