College Basketball March Madness (NCAA Tournament) system:

TYPE:

The CBB March Madness system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1.00 units on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units based on the historical data of the group (by Money Line Range, Home/Away - or in the case of this system, by ROUND - i.e. First round, Second round, Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and Finals). We also have PROGRESSIVE systems that vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units as well. However the difference between Weighted Flat and PROGRESSIVE systems is that PRECEDING results (prior week, prior day, etc) have no impact on the upcoming plays. So there is no build factor or due factor, as there is with Progressive systems. That is why it is still a flat. The advantage of the Weighted Flat system is that we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. This disadvantage of weighted flat systems is since the higher unit plays are based on 7-year historical data - in the case of an off year or bad luck year - there can be more downside risk if the high unit groups don't perform well. More info on the different types of systems can be found in our FAQ's section.

UNITS:

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above the CBB March Madness system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

0.20     $20       $100     $200     (1/5 your standard wager)

0.50     $50       $250     $500     (1/2 standard)

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard

UPDATE TIMES:

MARCH updates will be sent as follows: 

• Monday through Saturday, by 6 PM ET (for night games)

• Sundays by 11 AM ET (for all games)

• In the event that there are DAY games Monday - Saturday, an update will be sent by 11 AM ET.

PROFIT NUMBERS:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past 7 seasons:

* The Tournament consists of 10 game days (we count the Tuesday Play-In game as part of the first day).

The first question you're probably wondering is, with the negative results last season, why didn't we modify this system for 2010?
The answer is - the 2nd round last year. More specifically, the underdogs going 0-14 in the 2nd round in last year. Not a single underdog won. This had not happened since 2003 and for all we know - has never happened. So we consider this to be EXTREMELY abnormal, and we do not envision this happening again. Heading into the 2nd round we were at +7.99 units. At the end of the 2nd round we were at -7.62. The second round alone was a 15.6 unit swing. 

Part of what contributed to the huge swing was the fact that we had two 2-unit plays and three 3-unit plays. So that was 13 units right there. Had these groups performed normally, we would have been fine. However the 2 unit group (which had a 6-5 record since 2003) went 0-2, and the 3 unit a group (6-2 since 2003) went 0-3. If the just the lowest 2.00 (Cleveland State +125 vs. Arizona) and the lowest 3.00 (Marquette +150 vs. Missouri) would have won, the system would have finished +5.44 units in profit.

So as a result of these highly abnormal results, and considering the system still had the same number of total wins as the previous two seasons, we are giving it one more shot this season. If it doesn't work out this season then obviously we will modify it. However right now we still consider the downside risk to be low, because even with that disastrous 2nd round last season, the losses were only in the single digits. Meanwhile 4 of the past 7 seasons have posted double-digit profits. Plus as you can see there's been a trend of much fewer underdog wins the last three seasons compared to the first four. Everything goes in cycles so we're hoping the dogs get back on track this season, especially in the historically better performing ranges. It is for these reasons that we have decided NOT to modify this system.

Even with last season's result, the average profit across the seven seasons is +14.34 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline 1 unit play that would be an average profit of $1,434, and a total profit of $10,083 over the past six seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $7,170 and a total profit of $50,190.

PLAY BREAKDOWN:

Here is a breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year:

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MORE NOTES:

• The system this season is for the NCAA TOURNAMENT ONLY (not the NIT or CBI).

• We will be adding the NIT & CBI in future seasons.

• We will not be on EVERY game (only dogs of +120 to +2000).

• We will be using the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that fall into the system.

• We will pull the lines at approximately 10:30 AM Eastern for the day updates and 5:30 PM Eastern for the night updates.

• MOST of the lines in our database (over 80%) from 2003-2009 are from CRIS/BM (same lines). The 2003 lines are from BOS. ALL of the 2004- 2009 lines (285 out of 337 games) were from CRIS/BM. All were pulled at approximately the times above. 

• Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us. 

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