CFB September system:

TYPE:

This particular football betting system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1 UNIT on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.2 to 5 units based on the historical data of the group (our data is sorted by Money Line Range, Home/Away, Conference, Day, etc.). The advantage of Weighted Flat systems is we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. Pure Flat systems generally feature less plays, because we ONLY play the profitable ranges. The disadvantage of weighted flat systems is because the higher unit plays are based on HISTORICAL data - if there's an off year or bad luck year - there can be a greater likelihood of losses if the high unit groups don't perform well. For more on the different types of systems, click HERE.

UNITS:

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above our CFB September system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

0.20     $20       $100     $200     (1/5 your standard wager)

0.50     $50       $250     $500     (1/2 standard)

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard

UPDATE TIMES:

SEPTEMBER updates will be sent as follows: 

• Monday through Friday (on days with games) by *6 PM ET

• Fridays, by 9 PM ET (for football Saturday through Sunday)

• *NOTE: In the event there's a game that starts prior to 7 PM ET during the week, we will send an update by 12 PM ET that day.

PROFIT NUMBERS:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past 7 seasons:

As you can see each season finished with a profit, and only one season was in single digits. We feel this system has tremendous upside potential and low downside risk. You'll also notice that starting in 2006 there were considerably more plays for three seasons in a row. This is due to the fact that there were 5 Saturdays in September those three seasons. In 2003 there were also five Saturdays, however for that season we have slightly less lines in our database, because we used BOS & Olympic. In 2004 we started using CRIS/BookMaker. Although their money lines are extremely similar, BOS and Olympic did not release many of the higher money lines (+800 and up). Additionally, they did not release money lines for Sun Belt games.

This season there will only be four Saturdays in September, so we anticipate 100-135 plays.. 

We consider the percentage for 2006 to be abnormally low, and the percentage for 2003 to be abnormally high. The percentages for 2004-2005 and 2007-2009 seem to be more in line with the overall average. In fact as you see last year the record, number of plays, units and averages were extremely close to the average. However the profits were lower because we ran into some tremendous bad luck. We were on the wrong side of 7 fourth quarter collapses, including some surreal finishes, and 10 blown half-time leads (that we noticed, could be even more). However despite that it still finished with solid profits. That is why we are extremely excited about this system this season. As long as it's a NORMAL month for the underdogs, profits should be in the range of 20-30 units, since there are only 4 Saturdays this year.

The average profit across all six seasons was +32.04 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline (1.00 unit) play that would be an average profit of $3,204, and a total profit of $22,431 over the past 7 seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $16,022 and a total profit of $112,153.

As far as daily volume, as you can see it averaged 4.5 plays per day and 2.9 units per day. Keep in mind that is across 30 days of September (and in some cases there were August games). That is not the average on GAME days (some days there are no games). Obviously, the largest day is Saturday. The average Saturday was 15.68 units, however the unit levels increase after the first two:

PLAY BREAKDOWN:

Here is a breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year:

MORE NOTES:

• For this system, we will NOT BE ON EVERY DOG. Some of the ranges did not perform well enough from 2003-2009 to justify a play at any unit level. 

• We will be using the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that fall into the system.

• We will pull the lines at approximately 5:35 PM Eastern Monday through Friday (the Friday lines are also used for weekend games).

• A quick note about 'BIG DOGS'. It is frustrating when we're not on a big dog that hits. However you should know that there's a statistical reason for this. We started tracking big dogs in 2005, and over the past five seasons, here's the performance in September (includes any games in late August):
  
                                           road dogs +1000 and higher: 6-197; -44.45 units
                                           HOME dogs +1000 and higher: 3-36; +11.00 units
  
  For the road dogs, five out of the six wins were below +2150. If not for Syracuse beating Louisville at +7500 in 2007, the performance would have been disastrous (-120.45 units). And that Syracuse win was the ONLY one in 5 years higher than +2150. For the HOME dogs, all three wins were below +2000. The dogs higher than +2000 were 0-12 (-12.00 units). Still, the only reason we are not including the bigger home dogs is because we do not have complete data for them for the duration of this system 
  (since 2003). In any case, a handful of big dogs will hit each month, and there are more 'big upsets' each year as parity increases. We are working on some type of big dog system for the future. In the meantime, if any of you want to do your own big dog system THIS SEASON, by all means send us an email should you want our help with it, because we have all the data since 2005.
  

• For this system, over 81% of the lines in our database are from CRIS/BM. Over 12% are from BOS, Olympic, or The Greek 
  (very similar to CRIS/BM). Less than 6% are from Pinnacle (slightly higher). So for the most part, this system is 'apples-to-apples'. 

• Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us. 

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