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MLB Playoffs system:
TYPE: This particular baseball betting system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1 UNIT on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.2 to 5 units based on the historical data of the group (our data is sorted by Money Line Range, Home/Away, League, Round, etc.). The advantage of Weighted Flat systems is we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. Pure Flat systems generally feature less plays, because we ONLY play the profitable ranges. The disadvantage of weighted flat systems is because the higher unit plays are based on HISTORICAL data - if there's an off year or bad luck year - there can be a greater likelihood of losses if the high unit groups don't perform well. For more on the different types of systems, click HERE. UNITS: Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other handicapping services and sports betting systems release plays. It also makes it easy for everyone to multiply and understand. As
stated above our MLB Playoffs system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system,
so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of
the play. However we will not be using
all of the unit levels for this particular system. For this system, we will only be utilizing
0.50, 1.00 or 2.00
units. Units ($) options *0.20 $20 $100 $200 (1/5 your standard wager) *WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS SYSTEM 0.50
$50
$250
$500 (1/2 standard) 1.00
$100
$500
$1000 2.00
$200
$1000 $2000
2x standard *3.00
$300
$1500 $3000 *5.00
$500
$2500 $5000 UPDATE TIMES: OCTOBER updates will be sent as follows:
NOVEMBER updates will be sent as follows:
PROFIT NUMBERS: Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past 7 seasons:
* Total days = Calendar days for the duration of the playoffs, including days with no games. From 2003 to last season we used a PROGRESSIVE system for the MLB playoffs. However last season was a disaster. The favorites went on a ridiculous 12-1 run from October 16th to the final game on November 4th. This almost never happens in the MLB playoffs. However despite the run, we still could have finished with profits if the ANGELS would have beaten the Yankees at home in Game 4 of the ALCS on October 20th, and if ANY underdog in the final four games of the World Series would've won. So we were a lot closer to profits than the -16.03 units would indicate. However that is the danger of progressive systems, streaks can kill you. There USUALLY aren't streaks in the playoffs, but because there CAN be - as evident by last season - we are pretty much scrapping progressive systems. Not only for the playoffs, but entirely. MLB playoffs was one of our final progressive systems, but because it did not work last season, and that was the 2nd losing season in 7 years, we are shifting to a weighted flat system. Our goal is to find something that works every season. So after an analysis of the data, we've developed a new weighted flat system for the MLB playoffs, and we're extremely excited about it's potential. We've kept the unit scale to 0.50, 1.00, or 2.00. This is due in part to the fact that we will have two other weighted flat systems going on that month (NFL and CFB), so we need to minimize the daily unit volume. It's also due to the fact that playoffs are tricky because of scores in the series (for instance our system does not differentiate between a +165 dog with the series tied at 3-3 or with a team down 3-0.), and who 'just won' (playoffs tend to zig-zag). As a result we want to avoid having a big play land on a meaningless game for an underdog or a game after they just won, especially if they won on the road. This is something we endured this season with the NHL, and we will make similar modifications to our playoff systems moving forward in which there are SERIES (NBA & NHL; for single-game playoffs such as March Madness and NFL this is irrelevant obviously). Ultimately we will develop systems where score in the series and possibly what happened the game prior are parameters for grouping. However in the meantime our precautionary measure is to not have any plays higher than 2.00 units. So that being said, we're excited about the potential for this system because each season finished with a profit. We feel this system has tremendous upside potential and low downside risk. Also as you can see above, there's an 'alternating' pattern that's developed the last SIX years. Since last year was abysmal (yet still finished with a small profit), if the cycle continues as it has we could see sizable profits this year. The average profit across all 7 seasons is +11.52 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline (1.00 unit) play that would be an average profit of $1,152, and a total profit of $8,064. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $5,760 and a total profit of $40,318. PLAY BREAKDOWN: Here is a breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year:
MORE NOTES:
To return to the home page, click HERE. To return to the list of systems by MONTH, click HERE. To return to the list of systems by SPORT, click HERE. |
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