NFL Pre-season system:

TYPE: TRACK-RECORD: 2009-10 results: MODIFIED from last year?
WEIGHTED FLAT 6-YEAR +18.90 units NO
UNIT SCALE: PAST RESULTS (this system): 2009-10 PAGE: 2009-10 SUMMARY:
PARTIAL (0.50 to 3.00 units) +83.23 units Click HERE Click HERE (coming soon)

TYPE:

This particular football betting system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1 UNIT on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.2 to 5 units based on the historical data of the group (our data is sorted by Money Line Range, Home/Away, Conference, Day, etc.). The advantage of Weighted Flat systems is we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. Pure Flat systems generally feature less plays, because we ONLY play the profitable ranges. The disadvantage of weighted flat systems is because the higher unit plays are based on HISTORICAL data - if there's an off year or bad luck year - there can be a greater likelihood of losses if the high unit groups don't perform well. For more on the different types of systems, click HERE.

UNITS:

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other handicapping services and sports betting systems release plays. It also makes it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above the NFL Pre-season system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. However we will not be using all of the unit levels for this particular system. For this system, we will only be utilizing 0.50 to 3.00 units.

Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

*0.20     $20       $100     $200     (1/5 your standard wager)    *WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS SYSTEM

0.50     $50       $250     $500    (1/2 standard) 

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

*5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard     *WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS SYSTEM

UPDATE TIMES:

AUGUST updates will be sent as follows: 

  • Monday through Saturday, by 6 PM ET (for night games)

  • Monday through Saturday, at approximately 11:45 AM ET (for day games) 

  • Sundays at approximately 11:45 AM ET (for all games)

SEPTEMBER updates will be sent as follows: 

  • Monday through Friday, by *6 PM ET

  • Fridays, by 9 PM ET (for football Saturday through Sunday)

  • *NOTE: In the event there's a game that starts prior to 7 PM ET during the week, we will send an update by 12 PM ET that day.

PROFIT NUMBERS:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past 6 seasons:

PROFITS W-L (%) # of PLAYS TOTAL units PLAYS PER DAY (AVG.) UNITS PER DAY (AVG.)
2004 +  3.75 17-34 (33%) 51 51.50 1.6 1.7
2005 + 35.45 28-21 (57%) 49 50.50 1.6 1.6
2006 -   3.58 14-34 (29%) 48 59.50 1.5 1.9
2007 + 11.18 18-22 (45%) 40 48.50 1.3 1.6
2008 + 17.53 21-22 (49%) 43 45.00 1.4 1.5
2009 + 18.90 19-23 (45%) 42 39.00 1.4 1.3
TOTAL + 83.23 117-156 (43%) 273 294.00
AVG + 13.87 20-26 (43%) 46 49.00 1.5 1.6

As you can see FIVE out of the six seasons finished with a profit. We feel this system has tremendous upside potential and low downside risk. We consider the percentages for 2004 & 2006 to be abnormally low, and the percentage for 2005 to be abnormally high. The percentages, # of plays and profit numbers over the last three seasons seem to be more in line with the 6-year average, although last year's total units was a bit low for some reason, probably just the nature of the schedule and match-ups. 

The average profit across all five seasons was +13.87 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline (1.00 unit) play that would be an average profit of $1,387, and a total profit of $8,323 over the past five seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $6,935 and a total profit of $41,613.

As far as daily volume, as you can see it averaged 1.5 plays per day and 1.6 units per day. Keep in mind that is across the 31 days of August, not GAME days (there are some days with no games).

PLAY BREAKDOWN:

Here is a breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year:

  0.50 1.00 2.00 3.00 Total plays Total units
2004 27 13 8 3 51 51.50
2005 23 17 5 4 49 50.50
2006 19 10 17 2 48 59.50
2007 19 7 10 4 40 48.50
2008 14 21 7 1 43 45.00
2009 22 13 6 1 42 39.00
TOTAL 124 (45%) 81
(30%)		 53
(19%)		 15
(5%)		 273 294.00
AVG. 21 14 9 3 46 49.00
AVG UNITS per PLAY: 1.08

MORE NOTES:

  • For this system, we will NOT BE ON EVERY DOG. Some of the ranges did not perform well enough from 2004-2009 to justify a play at any unit level. 

  • We will be using the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that fall into the system.

  • We will pull the lines at approximately 11:35 AM Eastern for day updates and 5:35 PM Eastern for night updates.

  • ALL of the NFL Pre-season lines in our database from 2004-2009 are from BetCRIS/BookMaker (same lines). All lines were pulled at approximately the times above. This system is 100% 'apples-to-apples'. 

  • Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us.

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