NFL September system:

TYPE:

This particular football betting system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system. To explain further, we have two different types of flat systems: PURE Flat and WEIGHTED Flat. Pure Flat systems are 1 UNIT on EVERY PLAY. Weighted Flat systems vary from 0.2 to 5 units based on the historical data of the group (our data is sorted by Money Line Range, Home/Away, Conference, Day, etc.). The advantage of Weighted Flat systems is we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. Pure Flat systems generally feature less plays, because we ONLY play the profitable ranges. The disadvantage of weighted flat systems is because the higher unit plays are based on HISTORICAL data - if there's an off year or bad luck year - there can be a greater likelihood of losses if the high unit groups don't perform well. For more on the different types of systems, click HERE.

UNITS:

Our unit scale utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

As stated above our September NFL system is a WEIGHTED FLAT system, so your wager amounts will vary depending on the unit rating of the play. Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units     ($) options

0.20     $20       $100     $200     (1/5 your standard wager)

0.50     $50       $250     $500     (1/2 standard)

1.00     $100     $500     $1000 >> your standard wager

2.00     $200     $1000   $2000   2x standard

3.00     $300     $1500   $3000   3x standard  

5.00     $500     $2500   $5000   5x standard

UPDATE TIMES:

SEPTEMBER updates will be sent as follows: 

• Monday through Friday (on days with games), by *6 PM ET

• Fridays, by 9 PM ET (for football Saturday through Sunday)

• *NOTE: In the event there's a game that starts prior to 7 PM ET during the week, we will send an update by 12 PM ET that day.

PROFIT NUMBERS:

Here are the profit numbers for this system over the past 7 seasons:

The first question you're probably wondering is, with the negative results last season, why didn't we modify this system for 2010? 
The answer is - last year SHOULD HAVE finished +6.49 units. We'll explain. Last season (as you can see) had a better record percentage-wise than 2008, and should have posted similar profit numbers. And it would have, except two things happened. Or we should say two PEOPLE happened: Leodis McKelvin and Brett Favre. Let's start with the first one. If you recall last year the Bills played the Patriots in the first Monday night game and were whopping +610 dogs. We had a half-unit play on them (0.50 units). The Bills meltdown that night still goes down as one of the most surreal blown leads in the history of sports. They lead 24-13 with 5 minutes left in the game, and figured out a way to lose. For some reason McKelvin decided to return a kickoff out of the end zone and refuse to go down. Fumble. Tom Brady TD. Good night, drive home safely. That game was actually the middle game of THREE prime time meltdowns in a row. On Sunday night football the Bears couldn't hold a 15-13 lead with less than 2 minutes left. And in the second monday night game the Raiders couldn't hold a 20-17 lead with 2 minutes left. Both defenses had been exceptional all night. 

We realize the nature of playing underdogs is that they will implode, so we're considering the Bears and Raiders losses normal. But the Bills loss goes on the list of abnormal - with that one, we had the right play but simply endured a ridiculously freakish result. 

Which brings us to the 2nd game that month that fell in that category. You may remember the 49ers road game at Minnesota on September 27th. We had a full unit on them at +240. This is another one we flat out should have won. The 49ers were up 24-20 with 12 SECONDS left when Brett Favre threw a ridiculous laser into the end zone, through all kinds of traffic and from what seemed like the middle of the field. Of course some nobody receiver (Greg Lewis?) hauled it in with two feet barely in the end zone. Only one guy in the history of the league makes that throw, and very few make the catch if he does. If you haven't seen it recently, it's worth another view on YouTube, unless of course you're a 49ers fan.

So again if those two PLAYS don't happen - and the Bills and 49ers hold on - we're at +6.49 units. If the Bears and Raiders hold on, we're at +10.59 units. Because of that, we don't feel it's necessary to modify this system right now. We will modify a system if it winds up being substantially off. But in this case, we don't feel the system was off - it was more the result of two isolated instances of extreme bad luck. That is why we are leaving the system as it is despite the fact that it wasn't profitable last year. Plus when we look at the numbers, we feel it could be due for a breakout.

We consider 2007 and 2009 to be outliers. 2003 through 2006 and 2008 seem to be inline with the norm. So provided it's a NORMAL month for the underdogs this season, profits should be in the range of +7 to +17 units.

Because only ONE season out of the past 7 finished in the negative (and barely), we feel this system has tremendous upside potential and low downside risk. You'll also notice that last season, as well as 2004-2006, there were less plays. This is due to the fact that there were only 3 Sundays in September those seasons. In 2003, 2007 & 2008 there were 4 Sundays. Once again this season there will only be 3 Sundays, so we anticipate 35 - 40 plays.

Even with last season's result, the average profit across the seven seasons is +14.98 units. So if you use $100 as your baseline 1 unit play that would be an average profit of $1,498, and a total profit of $10,488 over the past 7 seasons. If you use $500 as your baseline, that would be an average profit of $7,491 and a total profit of $52,440.

As far as volume, as you can see it averaged 1.3 plays per day and 1.5 units per day. Keep in mind that is across 30 days of September. Obviously, most of the plays are on Sundays. Most Sundays will be in the range of 10-15 units. Overall average units per week for the system was 13.2, ranging from 17.0 in 2005 to 11.7 in 2009. Most seasons were 12-14 units per week on average.

PLAY BREAKDOWN:

Here is a breakdown of the # of plays by unit level for each year:

MORE NOTES:

• For this system, we will NOT BE ON EVERY DOG. Some of the ranges did not perform well enough from 2003-2009 to justify a play at any unit level. 

• We will be using the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that fall into the system.

• We will pull the lines at approximately 5:35 PM Eastern on Mondays (for MNF) and Fridays (for the Sunday games).

• For this system, over 80% of the lines in our database are from CRIS/BM, including all the lines from 2005 on. The rest are from BOS or Olympic (very similar to CRIS/BM). So for the most part, this system is 'apples-to-apples'.

• Should you have any additional questions about this system, feel free to contact us. 

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