Answers to questions about our sports betting systems

A SYSTEM - as it relates to sports wagering - is a method of wagering that is guided by data and historical patterns rather than individual event analysis. A system is something that is adhered to regardless of the circumstances of the particular game (such as teams playing, injuries, weather, etc.). Here an example: You're taking the UNDER in an NFL game because the data shows that in 1:00 PM games involving AFC North teams have gone under in the month of September 77% of the time (we don't know if that's true, we're just using that as an example). So EVERY time you see that SITUATION, you take the UNDER. That's an example of a system. If you take the UNDER because it's pouring rain and one of the starting QB's is injured and both teams have great defenses, that is NOT an example of a system, that is a wager based on the analysis of the individual event. To equate it to money lines, let's say NFL HOME underdogs in 1:00 games of +130 to +170 hit at 60% over the past 5 years (again, not necessarily true, just giving an example). So you take the teams that fall into that situation, no matter what. Even if they're +150 because the starting QB is injured and they would've been favored, you take them anyway. That is an example of a system play. BACK TO TOP

Are you 'handicappers'?

No, we are most definitely NOT handicappers. Handicappers for the most part release plays on individual games based on the analysis of that particular game. We release monthly systems for each sport based ENTIRELY on historical data. SOME handicappers, such as Big Al McMordie and Marc Lawrence, use systems, historical data and trends in their handicapping. What differentiates us from Handicappers however is that there is no human element in our plays whatsoever. The software analyzes the historical results in the database, and assigns unit ratings to the highest hitting ranges. So our plays are 100% computer-generated. In the event of an injury or some other factor that most bettors feel would have a big impact on the game, we rely on the line to adjust that for us. For instance if it was +150 and then moved to +275 because of the injury, the play will be based on the historical data of the +275 group. That is one of the reasons why we release our plays as close to game time as possible. Another difference between us and Handicappers is we could care less if the game is on TV, or how 'big' it is. We could have a bigger play on a Hawaii game that starts at midnight than we do on the Super Bowl. Again, for us it's about winning the play, not purely having action on a game that's on TV. We will be on TV games, but the 'magnitude' of the game has zero impact on our unit rating, other than it's natural impact on the line. Handicappers tend to release more plays that are 'big TV games'.

Also - we do not offer any ATS or totals plays. Our system utilizes MONEY LINE plays only (as well as run line plays in baseball). Handicappers generally give out "sides" (with the exception of baseball). This is generally a spread play - the favorite or the underdog). Or they release "totals" - a play on the OVER/UNDER. For the most part Sports Handicapping services DO NOT give out money line plays.

Additionally, some Sports Handicappers will sell you one package, and then come back at you with bigger and more elaborate packages AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN. We have two packages, full season and half season - that's it. We DO NOT try to sell you 'better plays'. You're given the BEST PLAYS from March 1st to the Super Bowl. This is because we are more concerned with OUR MEMBERS making profits than making a "quick buck" by selling you one game and then continually trying to endlessly upgrade you for more money. Contrary to SOME handicapping services that are all about sales - we actually WANT you to win - and we know that in order to ensure profits - you need to adhere to the system over the course of the season.

And that brings us to another difference - the SYSTEM. Unlike many Sports Handicappers - we do not use our opinions, or "angles" or "inside information", or a "research staff", etc. We use mathematical formulas, pure and simple. The computer tells us who to get on - and we relay that information to you. It is pure objectivity. We don't spend one second thinking about and discussing who the public is on, what the weather is like, who's injured, what the quarterback did the night before, and all the other million-or-so factors that could affect the outcome of the game. Because at the end of the day, we feel you could spend all week researching these factors - and the team you thought was going to win, cover, or whatever, LOSES THE GAME. You just couldn't predict the starting running back for the team you bet against was going to get injured in the 1st quarter - and his back up - a sophomore who was passed up in recruiting by the team you bet on - had the game of his life and rushed for 253 yards and three TD's. All the bettors who took the favorite in that game are pissed off because they laid 10 points and the team LOST outright 33-31. But we're smiling because we had the underdog at +450. And we spent ZERO time researching the game. As for the games where they DO get it right and our underdog gets blown out 41-7 - oh well, the next game in the system will make up for it. We only have to win 40% or so. They have to win 55% just to break even! THAT'S the difference between us and Handicapping Services!

The final difference is - we will not "SELL" our systems to you. The results speak for themselves - and you can take your time on our web site to decide if it's for you or not. If it's not - we actually encourage you to PASS - and go put your money somewhere else. We do not NEED your money to survive as a business. Which is why you WON'T see us on TV or hear us on the radio talking about how we hit another big game last week and what a "big game" there is tonight. And you won't get called Saturday at 9:00 in the morning by an aggressive telemarketer who's trying to convince you to plunk down $99 on your credit card for something that "normally" costs $1,000 a week or whatever (By the way - wouldn't it be great if car dealerships worked that way. This Ferrari normally costs $120,000 - but you can have it today for $499!)...

HOWEVER that being said - although SOME of the handicappers out there are shady - there are some SOLID ones that we recommend - if you're looking for spread and totals plays. We mentioned two - Marc Lawrence and Big Al McMordie. Another one is Joe D'Amico of All American Sports. These guys do it right - they are honest, they make their own picks, they have proven systems, they research the games - and they have a winning track record year after year. As you can tell, we have spent years researching handicappers, tracking which ones continually show profits for their clients, and interviewing customers and industry people that know who is legitimate and know who you should avoid. As a result, we KNOW who the best handicappers are. So when you are finished with us, we encourage you to check out the ones we mentioned if you're looking for spread or totals plays. At the very least, DO YOUR HOMEWORK before you give your credit card to anyone - whether over the phone or online. BACK TO TOP

What is a money line?

A 'MONEY LINE' wager is a bet placed on a team to WIN, period. There is no 'pointspread'. This means there are no points (or in the case of baseball, no runs, in the case of hockey, no goals) added or subtracted to the team's final score.

In other words, if the team wins by a point, they win. This is the NOT the most common way that football & basketball games are bet (most people bet with the spreads). However this is the most common way baseball and hockey games are bet. Using football as an example, the games will appear something like this in the sportsbook:

Let's take a look at the Arizona/ Arizona State game as an example. In this game, there are two basic ways you can bet on Arizona. You can bet them 'with the points' (+14), which means if they win the game OR lose by 13 or less, you win the bet. If they lose by 14 exactly, it's a push - meaning you get your money back. And if they lose by 15 or more, you lose the bet. The bookmakers obviously felt he public would perceive Arizona State to be WAY better than Arizona. Thus the high point spread to draw even action on both sides. So if you bet Arizona +14, you're risking $110 to win $100.

HOWEVER, the other way to bet on Arizona in this game is the MONEY LINE (+475). With that bet, Arizona HAS TO WIN the game in order for you to win the bet. If they lose by point, you lose the bet. However the PAYOUT is much higher. In this case, you're risking $100 to win $475 (Arizona won, 34-27, in case you were curious). These type of Money Line, UNDERDOG bets are ALL that we utilize with our system. BACK TO TOP

Money line examples; other sports:

NFL:

NFL is identical to college, you're taking the team to win the game outright, regardless of the pointspread. The games will appear something like this in the sportsbook:

Let's take a look at the Chicago Bears/ Green Bay Packers game as an example (#213/214). In this game, there are two basic ways you can bet on the Bears. You can bet them 'with the points' (+8.5), which means if they win the game OR lose by 8 or less, you win the bet. If they lose by 9 or more, you lose the bet. The bookmakers obviously felt he public would perceive the Packers to be WAY better than the Bears in this game. Thus the high point spread to draw even action on both sides. So if you bet Chicago +8.5, you're risking $110 to win $100. HOWEVER, the other way to bet on Chicago in this game is the MONEY LINE (+370). With that bet, Chicago HAS TO WIN the game outright in order for you to win the bet. If they lose by point, you lose the bet. However the PAYOUT is much higher. In this case, you're risking $100 to win $370 (The Bears won, 21-10, in case you were curious). BACK TO TOP

CFL:

CFL is identical to college & NFL, you're taking the team to win the game outright, regardless of the pointspread. The only UNIQUE thing about CFL is that TIES are more common than in the NFL. In the event of a tie; the money line wager is a PUSH (meaning a refund - essentially no play). The games will appear something like this in the sportsbook:

In the example above, there are two basic ways you can bet on Hamilton. You can bet them 'with the points' (+8.5), which means if they win the game OR lose by 8 or less, you win the bet. If they lose by 9 or more, you lose the bet. The oddsmakers obviously took into account the public's perception that Edmonton was WAY better than Hamilton. Thus the high point spread to draw even action on both sides. So if you bet Hamilton at +8.5, in this particular case you would've risked $100 to win $127. (Pinnacle had the line at +127 for this spread, which means there was tremendous action on Edmonton at -8.5, and they were trying to even it out by offering the higher payout for Hamilton plus the points at this number). HOWEVER, the other way to bet on Hamilton in this game is the MONEY LINE (+340). With that bet, Hamilton HAS TO WIN the game in order for you to win the bet. If they lose by point, you lose the bet. However the PAYOUT is much higher. In this case, you're risking $100 to win $340 (Hamilton killed them, 40-14, in case you were curious). BACK TO TOP

Basketball (NBA & CBB):

Basketball is identical to football. Again, you're taking the team to win the game outright. And similar to football, this is NOT the most common way that basketball games are bet. In fact WAY less bettors play basketball money lines compared to football. That is actually better for us. The less people on the money lines, the less the oddsmakers focus on them and/or move them. They are almost entirely formulaic (tied to spread) and perception based. Here are some examples of NBA money lines:

Let's take a look at the Miami/ Sacramento game as an example. In this game, there are two basic ways you can bet on the Heat (Miami). You can bet them 'with the points' (+4.5), which means if they win the game OR lose by 4 or less, you win the bet. If they lose by 5 or more, you lose the bet. The bookmakers obviously felt he public would perceive the Kings to have the advantage in this game, especially playing at home. However they also felt the public would perceive it to be a relatively close game. As a result, they set the number at 4.5 to draw even action on both sides. So if you bet Miami +4.5, you're risking $110 to win $100. HOWEVER, the other way to bet on the Heat in this game is the MONEY LINE (+175). With that bet, the Heat HAVE TO WIN the game outright in order for you to win the bet. If they lose by point, you lose the bet. However the PAYOUT is higher. In this case, you're risking $100 to win $175 (The Heat won, 109-107, in case you were curious). BACK TO TOP

Baseball:

For baseball, money line wagers ARE the most common way they are bet. The games will appear something like this:

In the example above, there's two basic ways you can bet on the Orioles in this game. You can bet them with the 'runline' (+ 1.5 runs) - meaning if Boston wins by a run, you still win. If Boston wins by two runs or more, you lose.

OR, you can bet on the Orioles to WIN the game, period (THAT'S a money line bet - that's what we do). In that scenario if Boston wins the game you lose. If Baltimore wins, you win. It's that simple. We only play money line bets, and we only play underdogs. (The Orioles won, 12-7, in case you were curious). BACK TO TOP

For more baseball-specific issues, click HERE.

NHL:

NHL is very similar to football and basketball, in the sense that you're taking the team to win outright. That's INCLUDING overtime and shootouts. And similar to baseball, this IS the most common way that hockey games are bet (the other way is the goal-line). The games will look something like this:

Let's take a look at the Calgary/ Detroit game as an example. In this game, there are two basic ways you can bet on the Flames (Calgary). You can bet them 'with the goal line' (+1), which means if they win the game OR tie, you win the bet (however in the playoffs there are no ties of course). If they lose by a goal, it's a push. If they lose by 2 or more goals, you lose the bet. The bookmakers obviously felt he public would perceive the Red Wings to have the advantage in this game, especially playing at home. So if you bet Calgary +1, you're risking $100 to win $100 (EVEN MONEY).

HOWEVER, the other way to bet on the Flames in this game is the MONEY LINE (+230). With that bet, the Flames HAVE TO WIN the game outright in order for you to win the bet. If they tie, it's a push. And if they lose by a goal, you lose (whereas the goal line bet would've pushed). However the PAYOUT is higher. In this case, you're risking $100 to win $230 (The Flames won, 2-1, in case you were curious). The $130 difference may seem like a remarkable value for just one goal, however there are a lot of 1-goal games in the NHL, ESPECIALLY in the playoffs. However the dogs win A LOT. This is why we play NHL Money Lines in the playoffs. However we are also testing an NHL regular season system for the month of January. BACK TO TOP

Why do you only play underdog money lines?

We only play underdog money lines for numerous reasons. First and foremost, with an underdog money line you're always getting a 'plus payout' - meaning you're always risking LESS than you win. Because of that, you need to win LESS games. With spread plays, assuming the 'juice' is 10% (-110/+100), you have to win 55% to break even. With underdogs (of lets say +150), you only have to win 40% of the games to break even. So if you can find the underdog RANGES that historically perform BETTER than their break even percentages, your increasing the likelihood of profits. For instance if we found a certain GROUP of +150's that hits at 50%, we would be assured 25% profit for that group. Let's say the set is 10 games, and we go 5-5. The 5 losers would only cost us -500. However the 5 winners would make us +750. So we would net +250, or a 25% return on our 1000 unit investment. If you were to go 5-5 with spread plays (again assuming -110), you would lose -550 for the losers, and only win 500 on the winners, for a net of -50.

And obviously, the bigger the underdog payout, the lower the break even percentage. Therefore the easier it becomes to lock in profits if you can find ranges that consistently beat the break even percentage. For instance with a money line of +400, the break even percentage is 20% (you only need to win one out of 5 games to break even). So if you can find a specific group of underdogs in the 400's that hit at 21% or higher, you're assured profits. That's what we do, find GROUPS of money line underdogs that for whatever reason have been PROFITABLE over the past 4-8 years. So whenever it's a NORMAL year and the dogs in that group perform at (or above) their historical percentages, we WILL make profits.

In addition to the ability to find a mathematical advantage that increases the likelihood of profits, we also play money line underdogs because there is lower downside risk. With ALL of our systems, we are risking less on each play than we have the potential to win on that play. So across the entire system, there is way more upside potential than there is downside risk.

We also feel that each year, parity is increasing in college and pro sports. Public betting perception (the basis for which lines are set) never seems to catch up with the parity level. We see more and more upsets each year in each sport. Which - along with the mathematical reasons - is why we are big fans of money line underdogs in general. When a big upset happens - we're usually on it - and smiling while a lot of bettors are scratching their heads. So we feel that future seasons can actually outperform the data that we have in our database for prior seasons. Meaning, if we've found groups that have worked every year since 2004, they could work even BETTER this season.

The bottom line is NOBODY knows what's going to happen in any given sporting event. The only thing that is CERTAIN is that - on a regular basis - at some point the UNEXPECTED is going to happen. Our systems COUNT on this, and they use a logical and disciplined approach to - in a sense - predict the unpredictable. It's hard to pinpoint when an upset is going to happen. But you sure can get a better idea of when it's MORE LIKELY to happen - if you have 4-8 years of data in a database! BACK TO TOP

What else could be considered an underdog money line?

Basically, anything with a plus payout (technically +101, but we draw the line at +120). So for example FUTURES plays - when you see a team at 8-1 to win the Super Bowl, that essentially is a +800 underdog. Also things like run lines and alternate run lines (in baseball), alternate goal lines (in hockey), and 'adjusted' or alternate spreads and totals (in football and basketball). Even parlays could be considered underdog money lines. For instance at most places a 2-team parlay pays 14-5. That's a +280 underdog. A 3-team parlay that pays 6-1, is +600, etc. Which is why the sky is the limit as far as systems. Trust us when we tell you that we are saving data and testing systems for all of these possibilities! We're not going anywhere, and each year we develop more and more systems. BACK TO TOP

What are the different types of systems?

PURE FLAT:

With our PURE FLAT systems, every play is the same amount. Meaning, pure Flat systems are 1 UNIT on EVERY PLAY (For more on units, click HERE). Pure flat systems are possible when we find groups that have historically outperformed their break even percentages. The advantage of the Pure Flat system is there is far less downside risk (each play is 1 unit, and there are usually less plays). The disadvantage of Pure Flat is that we miss out on 'dogs hitting around us' (outside the ranges) when there are abnormal years. See the comparison chart below for the differences between the three systems. BACK TO TOP

WEIGHTED FLAT:

With our WEIGHTED FLAT systems, the plays vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units based on the historical data of the group (by Money Line Range, Home/Away/Neutral, and for some sports day of the week, league/conference, etc.). With weighted flat systems, the unit rating is based ENTIRELY on the historical performance of the group. PRECEDING results (prior week, prior day, etc) have no impact on the upcoming plays. So there is no build factor or due factor, as there is with Progressive systems. That is why it is still a flat system.
The advantage of the Weighted Flat system is that we don't miss out on many dog wins, because we are on most - if not all of them - it's just a matter of to what extent. This disadvantage of weighted flat systems is since the higher unit plays are based on 4- to 8-year historical data - if there is an off year or bad luck year - there can be more downside risk if the high unit groups don't perform well. BACK TO TOP

PROGRESSIVE:

With our PROGRESSIVE sytems, the plays vary from 0.20 to 5.00 units as well. However the unit rating is based on TWO factors: a) historical performance of the range, and b) the extent that a win from the group is due. This factors in the immediate preceding results. We have tried progressive systems with every sport, and have found that they work best with Progressive systems work best with high volume sports with a wide dispersion of money lines on a daily basis (such as NBA) or games that are extremely 'linear' (such as the MLB playoffs). In sports such as football and baseball, there can be too many gaps between wins (streaks with no wins in a certain group). Also there can be too many 'overlapping' games that need to be slotted in as due - and in baseball and football too many games start at the same time. So when you use money line as a tiebreaker - the game that may get slotted in as the 6th in the progression may be a +122 that loses, meanwhile 3 other games that start at the same time, a +128, +131 and +135 all win. Progressive systems have been hit or miss in all of the sports but NBA (early in the season) and the MLB playoffs. When they don't work out because of fluky or abnormal streaks in a certain range, or bad luck with game overlap, the downside risk can be sizable. That is why AT PRESENT (2009) we only have THREE Progressive systems left - NBA (OCT-NOV), the MLB Playoffs, and the NFL Playoffs. We are currently back-testing progressive systems in all sports however and coming up with solutions to the issues we've run into in prior seasons. Until we get the kinks worked out however, we are primarily sticking to FLAT systems. BACK TO TOP

Here is a chart summarizing the differences between the three systems:

	PURE FLAT	WEIGHTED FLAT	PROGRESSIVE
Play AMOUNTS VARY:	NO	YES	YES
ON ALL or MOST DOGS:	NO	YES	YES
Sequential: meaning PRECEDING RESULTS (day or week) matter (build/due factor):	NO	NO	YES
GAME OVERLAP can impact:	NO	NO	YES
DOWNSIDE RISK LEVEL:	LOW	MEDIUM	HIGH
PROFIT POTENTIAL:	LOWER	MEDIUM	HIGHER
# OF PLAYS:	LESS	MORE	MORE

How do the units work?

Our unit scale is VERY simple (see below) utilizes a base amount of 1 UNIT. This is to keep things uniform with the way most other services/systems release plays and to make it easy for everyone to multiply and understand.

Here are some sample dollar amounts relative to the units:

Units: ($) examples:

0.20 $20 $100 $200 (1/5 your standard wager) - used in WEIGHTED FLAT and PROGRESSIVE systems

0.50 $50 $250 $500 (1/2 standard) - used in WEIGHTED FLAT and PROGRESSIVE systems

1.00 $100 $500 $1000 >> your standard wager (NOTE: for PURE FLAT systems, every play is 1 unit)

2.00 $200 $1000 $2000 2x standard - used in WEIGHTED FLAT and PROGRESSIVE systems

3.00 $300 $1500 $3000 3x standard - used in WEIGHTED FLAT and PROGRESSIVE systems

5.00 $500 $2500 $5000 5x standard - used in WEIGHTED FLAT and PROGRESSIVE systems

SOME of our WEIGHTED flat systems only use 1, 2, or 3 units. And with ALL of our systems, the 0.50 to 2.00 unit plays are the most frequent. 3 and 5 unit plays are very rare, and 0.20 unit plays are designed for low probability big dogs.

How do you determine the unit ratings?

For flat systems, unit ratings are determined SOLELY by the historical data of the group (Money Line Range, Home/Away/Neutral, and - for some sports - day of the week, league/conference, etc.). For progressive systems, unit rating is determined by the COMBINATION of historical performance and the extent that the dog is due (number of linear preceding losses in that group).

What bankroll do you recommend to start out with?

At the start of each segment (March 1st and July 1st) we recommend ALLOCATING 50 units to be on the safe side. However we recommend DEPOSITING 20 units and seeing how it goes. Because in most previous seasons this has been more than enough to support all the wagers for the entire segment, provided you are playing every system. If you are only playing certain sports (which we do not recommend) than the bankroll needed depends on the sport and the system, but a good general rule is 20 units. Each sport and each system is different. On the low side (for systems with a smaller amount of games, such as CFL), it could be 5-units. Many are 10 units. And we make sure ALL of our systems would've work each year with a 20-unit bankroll. Check each system page for information on the bankroll. As we stated the good general rule would be to start with 20-units at the beginning of each segment and see how it goes. It always depends on the start, if we get off to a great start the first few weeks of a segment, there is certainly a very low likelihood that more than 20 units of bankroll would be needed. So basically we would advise taking the amount you have available to allocate to our systems for a given segment, and dividing that by 20 to determine your unit amount. For instance if you have $5,000 available, that would be $250 per unit. To make the math easier for you, you may want to keep it in increments of 100. So for instance if you have $5,000 available, we would advise playing $200 a unit, and depositing $4,000 (20 units) to start. BACK TO TOP

What are the minimum and maximum plays you recommend?

MINIMUM: The minimum play we would recommend in order to ensure substantial profits with our system would be $100 per unit ($20, $50, $100, $200, $300 or $500 wagers).

MAXIMUM: There is no maximum, just make sure your sportsbook has a big enough limit to accommodate 5 unit play (so for instance if you're at $2,000 per unit, that would be a $10,000 play). Or, make sure you have a enough accounts where you could split it up.
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How many plays are there on a typical day?

This completely depends on the sport and the particular system. To access each individual system page, click HERE for a list of all systems this season. However we always make sure that there is a reasonable number of TOTAL units per day for all systems.

Again it depends on the sport and the month, but GENERALLY, our systems average 1-5 units per day across the month during the regular season. This is less for sports like the CFL (fewer games) and for the other sports during the playoffs.

When do you release the plays?

This depends on the sport and the month. However here are the general times we release the plays:

Football: Mondays, Thursdays, and Fridays at 6 PM Eastern. The Friday update covers the entire weekend. In the case of Holidays with day games (Thanksgiving, New Year's day, etc.) we may have an AM update on that day.

Basketball: Daily (when games), at 6 PM Eastern for night games (that start at 7 PM or later), and 11 AM for day games (that start before 7 PM).

Baseball: Daily (when games), at 6 PM Eastern for night games, and 11:40 AM or 12 PM for day games.

NHL: Daily (when games), at 6 PM Eastern for night games, and 12 PM for day games.

Updates are ALWAYS sent at least 1 HOUR prior to the start of the first game.

How will I receive the plays?

ALL updates are sent via EMAIL. We have many members who receive the emails on their cell phones, via mobile email accounts or web-based email accounts. We highly recommend setting up a Yahoo or Gmail account (if you don't have one already) that you can check from any browser. We recommend using that AND your mobile phone account. BACK TO TOP

Where should I place the wagers?

That is completely up to you, and of course depends on what is legal in your state or country. OBVIOUSLY, make sure the sportsbook has higher limits, and money lines on most (if not all) football and basketball games. For those of you who place the wagers online, we have several books that we recommend. For football, basketball and NHL we recommend the following books: BookMaker.com, TheGreek.com, and PinnacleSports.com (Pinnacle for international members). For baseball, we recommend Bodog.com and 5Dimes.com. To determine lines for the system plays, we use Bodog for baseball, and BookMaker for everything else. For more on this, click HERE.

Why do the systems have varying years of track records?

For any new system we develop or current system we modify, we back-test the system going back as many years as possible to ensure that it would have been profitable each season. Many of our systems are continually profitable and do not need to be modified. However with all of our systems, we need to make sure that we are comparing 'apples-to-apples'. Meaning, for example, if this season we will be pulling the lines from BookMaker.com to determine the games that are IN the system, we want to make sure that as many of the lines in the database (from which we do the back-testing) are pulled from BookMaker as well, and that they were pulled at the same time. Depending on the sport, we have varying seasons of 'like data' in our database (this is due to the fact that for non-baseball sports we briefly shifted to Pinnacle in 2005 and 2006 because they had better money lines. However when they stopped accepting wagers from U.S. customers, we were forced to switch back to BookMaker.com). So now we are in the process of completing the database with ALL historical lines from Bodog and Bookmaker. However for ALL systems we make sure we have at least 4 years of like data for back-testing. You will see that most of our systems range from 4-6 years. BACK TO TOP

Why do some of your upcoming systems say 'TBD'?

After the completion of each season, we analyze EVERY system to determine if it should remain as is or be modified. We take as much time as possible to analyze each system from the previous season to determine how we can improve it to optimize profits. That is why upcoming months say TBD for both the system type and the track record. If you want results from ANY previous system we've done since 2003, just send us an email to info (at) sportsprofitsystems.com and we will send you a spreadsheet of the plays from any sport, and system, any month. BACK TO TOP

Why don't you have any systems in July or February?

Our season concludes with the Super Bowl, so we need to take the month of February off from systems to plan the upcoming 1st half of the next season. We also utilize February to bring on new members and renew existing members, update the web site, update our databases, and deal with other 'operations' tasks. Our 'first half' goes from March to June. It includes (for now) March NBA, College basketball, April, May and June MLB, and the NBA & NHL playoffs. We then break again in July because there is really only one sport (baseball) and July is disrupted by the All Star break. We've found the data to differ drastically before and after the All Star break, so there is no baseball system that works in July. We also utilize July to plan and improve the systems for football season, and do mid-season operations (web site and database) tasks. Our '2nd half' goes from August to the Super Bowl. And finally, like anyone else, we need SOME time off too! February and July are the ideal months for this. BACK TO TOP

Why do certain sports have no systems during certain months?

For each sport, every month is like a mini-season. During certain months, the underdogs quite simply do not perform at an adequate level to result in a system that would work (such as September MLB & March NHL). Additionally, we do not feature systems for partial months of the regular season, such as July MLB (interrupted by the All Star break) and April NBA. And for the reasons mentioned above, we do not have any systems in July or February. Finally, in order to optimize bankroll, we generally limit the number of active systems in any given month to 3-4 at the most. Otherwise, we would have to reduce the units for each system. So for each month we select the best performing sports in that particular month. BACK TO TOP

Why do you use BookMaker.com (basketball, football, and NHL) and Bodog.com (for baseball) as your line sources?

We use BookMaker.com because they have the best money lines (aside from Pinnacle and in many cases Matchbook) for all of the sports except baseball. Bodog has the best money lines for baseball (again, aside from Pinnacle and Matchbook), PLUS they honor the original price of an Action wager (see below) in the event of a late pitching change. Additionally, in 2003 we selected CRIS (which became BookMaker in 2007) for all sports, then briefly switched to Pinnacle in 2005 and 2006 (until they made the decision to stop accepting US wagers). We have since gone back and obtained MOST of the CRIS/BM lines for 2005 and 2006. So the other reason we stick with BM is that MOST of the lines in our database are from them, and the systems need to be apples-to-apples. We have been using Bodog for MLB since 2003, so we continue to use them for the same reason, in addition to the other reasons mentioned.

Baseball-specific questions:

Do you play 'Action' wagers or 'Listed Pitchers'?

For our system, we play only Action wagers - meaning we DO NOT list pitchers for either team. Listing pitchers is a way of protecting yourself if there's a late pitching scratch. For instance - let's say the starting pitcher for the team you selected is a dominant pitcher, and he's a late scratch. In his place, a rookie pitcher starts. In that case the line would jump immediately in the favor of the team your against. Since you were placing the wager because of the starting pitching match-up - this game is no longer the same game you thought you were betting on. So if you listed the pitcher - the wager is CANCELLED. However because we are an UNDERDOG system - we rarely care who's starting. If there are late pitching changes, sometimes it helps us, sometimes it hurts us. However MOST of the time - the starters RARELY MATTER - especially when you're betting underdogs. If you need further explanation on this, just call us. The bottom line is, for our system, you don't want to list the pitcher we're on and you DEFINITELY don't want to list the opposing pitcher. Just always specify action wagers.

We make it simple for you - play action wagers and use the sportsbooks we recommend. Even if you use your own books, this is RARELY a factor (only a handful of plays per month). However, if you want further explanation read on below...

This is an issue because unfortunately, some online books DO NOT honor an action wager if there's a late pitching change. That is why we release the plays as close to game time as possible. Many online books 'ADJUST' the payout if an action wager is placed early in the day, and then there's a late pitching change (for EITHER team). We think this policy is RIDICULOUS (after all, the whole POINT of an action wager is playing 'team vs. team, regardless of who pitches'). Can you imagine if you placed a football wager at +7 and the opposing team's quarterback broke his leg in practice - so they 'changed' your bet to -3, even though you're holding a ticket in your hand that says +7? In any case, we're not sure WHY they do this (if you have any insights - email us) however we're assuming they do it to protect themselves from people discovering information about pitching scratches before they do. Sometimes it works in the bettors favor, such as if the team you're ON replaces a superior pitcher with an inferior one (the dog price will go up and the payout will be higher), or if the team you're AGAINST replaces an inferior pitcher with a superior one (rare, they usually don't move pitchers up in the rotation unless it's a VERY big game - but this does happen - especially later in the season). However it can also work AGAINST you, if the team you're ON replaces an inferior pitcher with a superior one (once again, this is VERY rare), or the team you're AGAINST replaces a superior pitcher with an inferior one (once again, much more common). In both cases the dog price would go DOWN, and the payout would be adjusted accordingly, which would void the game as far as our system is concerned.

So why not just list the pitcher we're ON? The reason for this is that our data shows that the starter doesn't matter enough to make it worthwhile doing this. So in the case where our starter gets replaced with an inferior one - we still want to bet the game - because they win anyway enough times to make it worthwhile. And unless we sit around an monitor every game (see below) - we'd have no idea that a change occurred and that our wager was VOIDED.

Why not list the pitchers we're AGAINST? You don't want to do this for the precise scenario mentioned at the outset. If a dominant pitcher were to be scratched our original +185 wager on the dog would be VOIDED! It's far better to find a sportsbook that honors the Action wager and says - hey, you took a risk placing an action wager - so we're going to honor it. In this case it worked in your favor - good for you!

Plus, if we listed EITHER pitcher, we'd have to sit around and monitor the games right up until the first pitch is thrown to make sure our pitcher didn't get scratched. And if he does, we'd have to scramble to place a new wager. It's better to place the action wagers at books that honor them and go about our lives. Granted we may get a lower line than somebody that lists and then monitors the games (because as we indicated, the replacement pitcher is usually inferior - a long reliever or young starter - meaning a higher dog price), but once again, one of the reasons we came up with the system in the first place was to win without requiring a lot of TIME put into it.

So it's real simple - PLAY ACTION wagers and TRY to place them at books that honor the original ticket. If you don't - and a play is adjusted - it's not the biggest deal in the world, you may just have different profit numbers than the rest of us. That being said - we recommend two sportsbooks we've found that DO NOT adjust the payouts and HONOR the original price in the wager placed. These books are BoDog and 5 Dimes. BACK TO TOP

What is a 'Run Line'?

A run line is a type of baseball wager that involves subtracting or adding 1.5 runs to the teams final score (kind of like a pointspread) and as a result, receiving an adjusted payout. We have been testing MLB run line systems for years, and in 2009 did our first run line system (in June). BACK TO TOP

Why do you use Bodog as the line source for baseball?

For the answer to this question, click HERE. BACK TO TOP

About SPS:

How long have you been doing this?

We have been developing systems since 2001, and offering systems to Members since 2003. For more on our chronology, see below... BACK TO TOP

Who started the systems?

The first system was developed in 2001 by an individual with over 15 years of sports gaming experience. After several seasons of successfully testing it in the Las Vegas sportsbooks, he decided to offer it to fellow bettors. Since then, he has joined forces with with people in the industry that have helped him perfect and continually improve these systems. This includes a high-level manager at one of the largest, most recognizable casinos on the strip (with DECADES of sports gaming experience) as well as an expert in statistics and probability. Together, we formed the company Profit Lock System, LLC. In August of 2007, we changed the name to Sports Profit Systems (click HERE for why we changed the name).

Since 2003 we have developed new systems for all the major sports. We also continue to work on future systems for additional sports. And, we continually refine and improve existing systems to ensure profits for the many members that have now joined as subscribers.

After several successful seasons of testing the systems on our own, we knew we had something special - a winning formula. So we decided to offer fellow bettors the chance to get on our systems. In early 2003 we signed our first members (purely through word of mouth). Soon after we launched our original web site - ProfitLockSystem.com - and with very little marketing - continued to sign up new members and provide our winning systems to hundreds of Members - from Alaska to Brazil and all across the U.S. - primarily through word-of-mouth referrals. Many of our Members have remained with us since the beginning, and we add a select number of new Members each season!

With each new season we've learned more and more about the nature of underdogs within each specific sport. As a result we've continued to refine and perfect the systems based on what we learn. We've also expanded our services to include FLAT systems (betting the same amount on each underdog). We now offer both 'Progressive' systems and 'Flat systems'. We are now focused on improving existing systems within our current sports, and developing new systems for additional sports. BACK TO TOP

Have you always been called 'Sports Profit Systems'?

No, as stated above we were originally called the Profit Lock System. In any other business, there's nothing wrong with the word "LOCK". We originally developed the name Profit Lock System to describe what our systems do - lock in profits! However over time we became aware that there is a NEGATIVE association among sports bettors and Sports Advisory service customers with the word 'Lock'. Even though we did not intend for it to mean 'Lock' in the traditional sense - which is an old-school word for a game that can't miss - our name still contained the word with a negative stigma attached - so that's reason #1 for the name change. The second reason is - we have now developed MULTIPLE types of systems, including Flat systems. So with more than one type of system, we realized our name has to be SYSTEMS (plural). So that's why we changed our name! We do not even own the domain name ProfitLockSystem.com anymore, so who knows what (if anything is on there).

Also, some of you may recall the name Solid Sports. Back in early 2006 we went through a merger of sorts to shed the name Profit Lock System for the reasons mentioned above. We were distributing our plays on a web site called SolidSports.com which also offered ATS & Totals plays from Handicappers, and various other sports information content. The concept was to offer 'one-stop shopping' for all sports bettors. However after the law passed in 2006 we pulled back from this business model to keep it pure and focus on one thing and one thing ONLY - our systems! That is when we developed the name Sports Profit Systems, launched this basic web site.
So since 2007 we have been Sports Profit Systems, or quite simply... SPS! BACK TO TOP

I've seen your plays available on Covers and other web sites, why aren't you on those anymore?

In 2007 we made the decision to try offering our systems on the biggest Sports information site - Covers.com (and CoversExperts.com). This was primarily so we could stay focused on our systems, and not have to deal with transactions and the process of enrolling and servicing members. However as it turns out our systems just weren't the right fit for the Covers Clientele and user base. It seems they were used to and expecting single plays or weekly packages. Some did subscribe to our monthly subscription, and they were very pleased with the results. However unfortunately there was not enough monthly members to make it worthwhile, from either our standpoint or Covers. Again, it just boils down to our target audience of high-end investors being different from the Covers target audience of mid- to low- end primarily game-to-game players. So as a result, we made the mutual decision to part ways in the summer of 2008. Many of the members from Covers have now continued to remain with us as we split off and became SPS. To ensure that only the type of Clientele we are looking for joins our systems, we will remain independent and you will not find us on any other sports information or advisory sites moving forward.

Are your plays 'documented' or 'monitored'?

Our plays are NOT monitored by an outside monitoring service for the following reasons:

1. For anyone who inquires, we provide spreadsheets containing ALL of the plays from previous seasons. Since these spreadsheets could in a sense be considered 'marketing materials', they are as a result monitored by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). It would be FRAUDULENT and ILLEGAL for us to list plays in the spreadsheets that WERE NOT ACTUALLY part of the system and delivered to our members. We would never risk prosecution, fines and the probable shut down of our business by listing plays that were not legitimately the system's plays.

2. We provide all of our members with EVERY play for every sport, ALL SEASON long, and these plays are delivered via email well before the games obviously. Obviously, if we reported results on our web site that differed from the results the members experience, we wouldn't have very many members left at the end of the season, would we? Plus we would probably get bashed on all the 'forums' and what not. This doesn't happen, because we don't do that. We post the results honestly. So there really isn't a need for us to use some outside monitoring service, many of which are baloney anyway. If you don't trust that the results we report are real and accurate then quite simply pass on our stuff and go with something you'd be more comfortable with. If that's services that are documented or monitored, then, good luck with that. Just be sure to make sure the monitoring company isn't owned by the same people who own the service, and be sure to check ALL the 'clubs'/ 'levels' etc. for a particular handicapper or company. BACK TO TOP

What sports do you have in your database?

Here is a list of all of the lines we have in our database:

• NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB game lines

• NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB totals

• NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB money lines

• NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB 1st Half lines

• NFL, CFB, NBA 1st quarter lines

• NFL, CFB, NBA, 2-4 qtr

• NFL, CFB, NBA special spreads

• NFL, CFB, NBA special totals

• CFL game lines & totals

• Arena football game lines & totals

• MLB money lines

• MLB totals

• MLB 1st Half (5 inning) lines & totals

• MLB run lines

• MLB alternate run lines

• MLB 2.5 run lines

• NHL game lines

• NHL goal lines/ puck lines

• NHL money lines

• NHL regulation time

• NHL team totals

• NHL 3-way lines

• NHL 1st period lines

• NHL alternate goal lines & totals

• NHL 2nd – 3rd period

• Australian Rules Football spreads, money lines, and totals

• Tennis lines (major tournaments & ATP tour)

• International soccer lines (major tournaments & friendlies)

• English soccer lines (5 divisions)

• UEFA soccer lines

• Mexico soccer lines

• Japan J-League soccer lines

• Boxing money lines

• NASCAR lines (incl. Top 3 and Top 5 – CRIS)

• Cricket money lines

Many of these lines we have going back to 2003, however for some we only have samples of select seasons.

These are the ideal conditions for our systems:

* Duration (the longer the season the better)
* Frequency (the more games per day the better)
* Consistency (no long droughts, games spread out)
* Narrow talent gap; high motivation
* Big underdogs created by 'natural' match-ups
* No ties

That is why RIGHT NOW - baseball, football, and basketball are the most profitable sports for the system. But as stated above, we are developing systems for many different types of sports. Be on the lookout for an Australian Rules Football system in the near future!

What future systems do you have planned?

We have future systems planned for our current sports (especially December College Basketball and January NHL). We also have future systems planned for Australian Rules Football, Tennis, and possibly soccer. Right now we are currently buildling our database for these sports, formulating and back-testing systems. BACK TO TOP

How come I've never heard of SPS before?

You haven't heard of us because we don't do any marketing or PR. ZERO. Selling memberships is not our primary business. We are a private club. We enjoy sharing our systems with like minded bettors. We enjoy collectively beating the sportsbooks. But you will never see us on TV, hear us on the radio, see our print ads, or get mailed a schedule. We rely 100% on referrals and word of mouth and get enough inbound inquiries that way. If you receive an email from us, it means somebody thought you may be interested in joining us. We will send you and email ONCE. We do not spam. If you don't reply, you will not hear from us again. BACK TO TOP

About Membership:

Why do you require the fees up front?

We require the fees up front for several reasons. First and foremost to weed out the riff raff. Our systems require a sizable bankroll. If you're not comfortable submitting that amount for the systems than you definitely should not be playing them. Also, if you're not comfortable submitting the fees up front then you're not confident enough in the systems. If that's the case we encourage you to hold off for the upcoming segment, then check back with us to see the results at the end of the segment. Then join us for the next segment if you feel more comfortable once you've seen the results. BACK TO TOP

What do you mean by 'invitation only'?

We're LOOKING for members that are careful, skeptical, scrutinize everything and ask the right questions. It shows you've been around the block and are an experienced player. However as selective as you are in choosing your information, we are equally selective in choosing who we bring on as new members. As stated on other pages we are an INVITATION only group. If you receive an email from us, that's not necessarily an invitation to join. We will exchange emails back and forth, both ask questions, and engage in a dialogue. Then you will determine if our systems are right for you and we will determine if you're right for our systems. If it seems like a good fit, we will invite you to become a member. BACK TO TOP

How do I submit the fees?

We will make arrangements via email that are convenient for you. For more information on our membership options, click HERE.
BACK TO TOP

If you make so much money with the systems, why do you need to charge fees?

Ah, the question that everyone in the 'advice' business gets. Financial Advisors, Handicappers, Hedge Fund managers. If you're so good at making money why do you need Clients? Why do you need other people's money. Well we can't speak for others but in our case - yes, we've made a lot of money. But there's always MORE money to be made. How many of you have invented something or developed an idea - and wished you could market it, only to have it sit in your head or on a notepad. There's only so many games and so many sportsbooks and they all have limits. So there's only so much money we can make keeping this to ourselves. Think about it - if you came up with a magic diet pill that could cause you to tone up overnight if you swallowed it - would you keep it to yourself and live happily ever after with your great body? Hell no. You'd be selling that pill online and every other way you could think of as fast as you could.

But believe it or not (and we know this will be hard to believe, but it's true), we do have motives other than profits (after all - we didn't have to list this question in our FAQ's or take the time to write out this answer). We could just keep the systems to ourselves and continue to make decent profits. But call it our philanthropic side coming out - we we're betting on sports using 'the old way' - handicapping games against the spread - for over 10 years. We got sick of getting frustrated - up one week, down the next week, up one season, down the next season. And we got sick of seeing our friends go through the same thing. So by thinking of ways to expect the unexpected, we discovered underdog money lines. We then built up a database and started testing systems. Fortunately we found systems that makes money. So rather than keep them to ourselves - we WANT other sports bettors to win too. Call it David vs. Goliath. It's our way of helping out the 'the little guy' who continually gets clobbered by the sportsbooks and makes a bunch of corporations in Nevada, Great Britain or the Caribbean a lot of money. We want to see the BETTORS make some money - and it's not much of an impact if it's just us. This may sound far-fetched, but it's the truth. Call it our way of rooting for the UNDERDOGS!!! BACK TO TOP

What do you get when you become a member?

You receive daily emails with the plays to as many email addresses as you like (provided they're all yours of course). You also receive unlimited (within reason) email communication with us to ask questions or share any feedback you may have. You will also receive email updates on results and upcoming systems (which are also posted on the web site). BACK TO TOP

How do you communicate with members?

We communicate via EMAIL ONLY. Unless you call us, we will never, EVER call you on the phone. BACK TO TOP

What is your policy on confidentiality?

Everything is 100,000% confidential, in both directions. We never, EVER share names, email addresses, phone numbers, or any other information with any outside parties. We expect the same confidentiality from our Members. This is of utmost importance to us, which is why we carefully screen who becomes a Member. We have Members who have been with us since we started in 2004. If we did not take privacy and confidentiality very seriously, that would not be the case. BACK TO TOP

Do you do custom research or custom systems for members?

Yes, we do. The following provides more details on each service:

Custom Research:

Custom Research involves finding specific DATA that you are looking for and producing reports that will help you formulate your own systems. For instance, let’s say you wanted to know AUGUST baseball underdogs of +150 or higher, broken out by home/away and AL/ NL. We would get that data and produce the report for you, complete with a sortable spreadsheet of results going back at least 5 seasons. And if we don’t have the data you’re looking for in our database, we can attempt to find it for you through our various sources. However chances are we'll have it, we have a very extensive database of lines. For a list of sports we have in our database, click HERE (will open in a seperate window).

Many of these lines we have going back to 2003, however for some we only have samples of select seasons. If you let us know which data you’re interested in, we can tell you how many seasons we have.

Custom Systems:

This is slightly more complex than Custom Research, which is simply generating reports for you to utilize on your own. Custom SYSTEMS would be if you wanted us to run a special system FOR you. This would entail finding a system, back-testing it to ensure profitability, generating daily plays and logging/scoring the plays. For example, let’s say you wanted to do an NFL Pre-season PROGRESSIVE system, and we are only doing a FLAT system for all members. And you wanted to play not only underdog money lines, but underdogs ATS and Unders as well – all progressive. We could develop the system for you, back test for the years we have data to determine if it would’ve been profitable, log and track the system and send you an email each day with the plays. That would be an example of a custom system. BACK TO TOP

About Sports wagering in general:

Why do you call it Sports 'investing'? Isn't it 'betting' or 'gambling'?

We call it investing because we don't consider it gambling. Let's analyze what we're doing. We're using historical data and mathematical formulas to make a return on our money. Which is no different than what thousands of people on Wall Street (or online) do every day. Are there risks involved? Sure, but what investment isn't risky? Stocks? Tell that to the people who had Enron, WorldCom or Adelphia in their portfolios. A trusted advisor? Like Bernie Madoff for instance? We feel that in sports, just like in the financial community, if you 'spread your bets' (funny they should use that term), stay diversified, minimize your downside risk, and follow a proven system, that's INVESTING. If you pour your life savings into a stock because you got a tip or you go large on one game, that's GAMBLING.

To explain further let's look at the definitions. We got these straight from Dictionary.com

gamble
–verb (used without object) 1. to play at any game of chance for money or other stakes.
2. to stake or risk money, or anything of value, on the outcome of something involving chance: to gamble on a toss of the dice.

–verb (used with object) 3. to lose or squander by betting (usually fol. by away): He gambled all his hard-earned money away in one night.
4. to wager or risk (money or something else of value): to gamble one's freedom.
5. to take a chance on; venture; risk: I'm gambling that our new store will be a success.

–noun 6. any matter or thing involving risk or hazardous uncertainty.
7. a venture in a game of chance for stakes, esp. for high stakes.

So you see the recurring theme is that it involves CHANCE, or it involves LOSING your money. It's funny how the term has evolved over time, when it's derived from (also from Dictionary.com) 'Middle English gammlen, variant of gamenen "to play, jest, be merry," from Old English gamenian "to play," from gamen (see game). Or possibly gamble is from a derivative of gamel "to play games" (1594).

So what started out just meaning to play now means to risk. But what if you minimize the risk by reducing the 'chance' or luck factor? Isn't that being smart with your money? Isn't that more like investing? We reduce the luck factor by using 6 or 7 years of hard DATA. We've come up with a mathematical formula that assigns the appropriate unit levels based on that historical data. So single events don't matter that much, just like ONE stock in your portfolio going up or down in a day. We run into good luck and bad luck like anyone else, and there's always the chance the data will be off the historical norms in any given season. But across all the sports, over the course of a full season, we finish in the black and give our members a return. That's not gambling. That's investing.

invest
–verb (used with object) 1. to put (money) to use, by purchase or expenditure, in something offering potential profitable returns, as interest, income, or appreciation in value.
2. to use (money), as in accumulating something: to invest large sums in books.
3. to use, give, or devote (time, talent, etc.), as for a purpose or to achieve something: He invested a lot of time in helping retarded children.
4. to furnish with power, authority, rank, etc.: The Constitution invests the president with the power of veto.
5. to furnish or endow with a power, right, etc.; vest: Feudalism invested the lords with absolute authority over their vassals.
6. to endow with a quality or characteristic: to invest a friend with every virtue.
7. to infuse or belong to, as a quality or characteristic: Goodness invests his every action.
8. Metallurgy. to surround (a pattern) with an investment.
9. to provide with the insignia of office.
10. to install in an office or position.
11. to clothe, attire, or dress.
12. to cover, adorn, or envelop: Spring invests the trees with leaves.
13. to surround (a place) with military forces or works so as to prevent approach or escape; besiege.

–verb (used without object) 14. to invest money; make an investment: to invest in oil stock.
ake

As you can see there are some pretty strange definitions of invest that we didn't even know about, but we've bolded the terms most of us are familiar with. Using money to make profitable returns, and accumulate more money. Using time and resources to accomplish a goal. In our view, that's what we're doing. So stop gambling, and join us! BACK TO TOP

Why do a lot of bettors LOSE on their own and have a need for services or systems?

People CAN'T predict what's going to happen anymore!

The landscape of professional and collegiate athletics has been changing over the past several decades, and this is accelerating at a rapid rate. This is an era of the unexpected. Free agency and salary caps have created parity in professional sports. High profile professional athletes are doing more and more shocking things - on and off the field. And parity also exists in college sports. There are more Division 1 scholarships and programs than ever. The talent is spread out over more schools, and once again - the high profile and intense media exposure leads to unexpected decisions by the young men on these teams.

So what does this mean for bettors?

What this means is that most of you can FORGET about trying to predict what's going to happen each season, each week, each game, or each play. The UNEXPECTED always happens. A team will win the Super Bowl and then go 2-14 the next year. A team will go 2-14 and then win the Super Bowl. A star quarterback will get arrested for sexual assault the night before the Fiesta Bowl. A star quarterback will break his leg in the pre-season. A star quarterback will have a horrible game and throw 5 interceptions…Need we go on? The bottom line is you can stay up all night researching match-ups and stats, and there's no way of knowing that the QB will throw five picks. You can have a "contact" on campus that saw someone out drinking with him the night before until 3 AM, and then the next day he can have the game of his life and throw for 4 TD's and 400 yards… Even HE doesn't know what he's going to do.

But what about "the spread" or the "line"? Don't forget, the spread is just a number. It is designed to ATTRACT YOUR MONEY on one side or the other. Quite simply - the spread is what linesmakers and bookmakers think THE BETTING MASSES will think when trying to predict a game. If one team is a little better than the other team - they make it 3. If one team is a lot better - they make it 7. If one team is WAY better - they make it 10. Add or subtract a few for injuries, home field advantage, possible revenge motive, and there's your spread. There's no magic formula.…

But did you know the spread only MATTERS 20% of the time? In Money-Lined games (generally games with a spread of 14-17 or less) - 50% of the time the favorite wins and covers the spread and 30% of the time the underdog wins the game outright. And that's across ALL underdogs. Obviously the smaller the money line the higher the percentage, and the bigger the money line, the lower the percentage. However across all games the favorite wins and doesn't cover the spread only 20% of the time!!! So why would you WASTE your time A) trying to predict what's going to happen, when that's impossible for anyone to do, and B) deal with a "number" that only matters in 20% of the events?

Good question. We don't understand it either. That's why we stopped dealing with spreads along time ago. In our view, the way to make money in sports is with what's called "MONEY LINES" - where you just bet on who will win or lose the game, no spread. And to minimize downside risk, we only play underdog money lines, where you always get more than you risk. For more on underdog money lines, click HERE.

Back to the unexpected. The unexpected is happening just as much (if not more so) than the expected. Let's take a look at the Champions since 2002 in the major sports - NFL, College Football, NBA, College Basketball, MLB and NHL:

Year	Sport	Champion	Favorite or Underdog?
2010	NFL	Saints	UNDERDOG (+4.5)
2009	NFL	Steelers	Favorite (-6.5)
2008	NFL	Giants	UNDERDOG (+12.5)
2007	NFL	Colts	Favorite (-6.5)
2006	NFL	Steelers	Favorite (-4)
2005	NFL	Patriots	Favorite (-7)
2004	NFL	Patriots	Favorite (-7)
2003	NFL	Buccaneers	UNDERDOG (+3.5)
2002	NFL	Patriots	UNDERDOG (+14)
2010	CFB	Alabama	Favorite (-3.5)
2009	CFB	Florida	Favorite (-5.5)
2008	CFB	LSU	Favorite (-3.5)
2007	CFB	Florida	UNDERDOG (+7)
2006	CFB	Texas	UNDERDOG (+7)
2005	CFB	USC	UNDERDOG (+1)
2004	CFB	LSU	UNDERDOG (+6.5)
2003	CFB	Ohio State	UNDERDOG (+12)
2002	CFB	Miami	Favorite (-8.5)
2009	NBA	Lakers	Favorite (series)
2008	NBA	Celtics	UNDERDOG (series)
2007	NBA	Spurs	Favorite (series)
2006	NBA	Heat	UNDERDOG (series)
2005	NBA	Spurs	Favorite (series)
2004	NBA	Pistons	UNDERDOG (series)
2003	NBA	Spurs	Favorite (series)
2002	NBA	Lakers	Favorite (series)
2009	CBB	North Carolina	Favorite (-7.5)
2008	CBB	Kansas	UNDERDOG (+2)
2007	CBB	Florida	Favorite (-4)
2006	CBB	Florida	Favorite (-1)
2005	CBB	North Carolina	Favorite (-2)
2004	CBB	Connecticut	Favorite (-5)
2003	CBB	Syracuse	UNDERDOG (+5.5)
2002	CBB	Maryland	Favorite (-7.5)
2009	MLB	Yankees	Favorite (series)
2008	MLB	Phillies	UNDERDOG (series)
2007	MLB	Red Sox	Favorite (series)
2006	MLB	Cardinals	UNDERDOG (series)
2005	MLB	White Sox	Favorite (series)
2004	MLB	Red Sox	Favorite (series)
2003	MLB	Marlins	UNDERDOG (series)
2002	MLB	Angels	UNDERDOG (series)
2009	NHL	Red Wings	Favorite (series)
2008	NHL	Red Wings	Favorite (series)
2007	NHL	Ducks	Favorite (series)
2006	NHL	Hurricanes	Favorite (series)
No Stanley Cup in 2005
2004	NHL	Lightning	Favorite (series)
2003	NHL	Mighty Ducks	UNDERDOG (series)
2002	NHL	Red Wings	Favorite (series)

What you see above is that out of the past 49 major championships, 19 of the winners have been UNDERDOGS and 30 have been favorites. That means underdogs have won 39% of the time - and that doesn't mean that 19 times they've 'covered' the spread - that means they've won the game or the series OUTRIGHT. So stop trying to GUESS what's going to happen, and start EXPECTING the unexpected. And the only way you can capitalize on the unexpected without losing your shirt is to establish SYSTEMS that are based on UNDERDOGS winning events. Or, you can get on board with someone that already has winning systems. That would be us. Are you ready to start making money? Click HERE. BACK TO TOP

Is wagering with an online sportsbook legal?

In the very near future we will have an entire section containing research we've done regarding the legality of wagering online. In the meantime, click on the links below for some articles on the issue (will open in separate windows)...

http://vegasclick.com/online/legal.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_gambling

Also, Covers.com has a great posting forum where the latest laws and issues are discussed. Here's a great place to start:

http://spaces.covers.com/controls/FreedomAtStake?t=0

And...

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmain.aspx?spt=9

What online sportsbooks do you recommend?

For all sports except baseball:

For baseball:

More details coming soon... BACK TO TOP

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